CO2 rate must fall 20% in 5 years to reach climate goal

The rate of increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere needs to be reduced by around 20% over the next five years to limit global warming to 1.5 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels, according to the latest analysis by the UK Met Office. .

The department’s annual CO2 forecast is a reminder that current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are not enough, meaning the world must act even more aggressively in the years ahead to have any chance of achieve global climate goals.

This year, the average concentration of CO2 will likely increase by 2.14 parts per million, the meteorological office said. That is indeed a slower pace than in recent years, thanks to the growth of more carbon-scavenging plants. This growth, which is being driven by the atmospheric conditions caused by the La Niña phenomenon.

“Nature will temporarily do our ‘heavy lifting’ this year, as ecosystems, such as rainforests, are expected to absorb a higher than usual proportion of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.“, He said Richard Betts, in charge of investigating climate impacts at the meteorological office.

“However, if the world is to meet the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement, the long-term accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere must decelerate rapidly and stop before the middle of the century.”He added.

2021, which went on record as the fifth hottest year in history, is followed by another year of increasing carbon content in Earth’s atmosphere.

To reach the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 ° C, which is the preference level set in the Paris climate agreement, the rise in atmospheric CO2 must slow to an average of 2 parts per million per year over the next five years.

That rate should continue to decline rapidly and then stop in the early 2040s, leaving CO2 levels to decline for the rest of the century. There is little indication that the world can reach that stage as long as economies continue to burn record amounts of coal in their recovery from the pandemic.