Trump’s first salva. What will happen now? “Inflationary impulse” is not everything

Goods from Canada and Mexico. Sound 25 percent CLAMI, China with CLAMS in a height of 10 percent – Donald Trump made such decisions. The US President is struggling that the time is coming to apply to the European Union. The consequences can be very serious. What awaits us? We ask the economist.

After information about duties applied to Canada, Mexico and China and threats of such tariffs towards the European Union . American dollar It was valued at over PLN 4.12. “Gold in the relationship with dollar is the third weakest currency in the world,” DM BOŚ says and emphasizes that “the reaction of the markets to reports of duties is quite nervous.

Economist: Pessimism is clearly visible

“Down the crash took place on cryptocurrencieswhich shows how the market was recommended, and the investors there felt de facto deceived by Trump, who made many promises in the election campaign, “add analysts. In their opinion, Trump’s customs are conquering the dollar’s quotations,” because the market will be afraid of the market Increase in inflation in the USA And the fact that the Fed will wait a long time with another reduction of the feet, and even … maybe there will be rumors about a raise ” – reads in the analysis of DM BOŚ.

Certainly you can not talk about panic, we have relatively small movements, while the mood is unambiguous and there is nothing to discuss here. As for the zloty, this fall is of course, but it is not very significant either. Pessimism is clearly visible, but there is no market breakdown so far. We’ll see what will happen in the following days

– says Marek Zuber from the WSB Academy in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl. Stock indexes went down. Japanese Nikkei lost 2.69 percent, and the South Korean Kospi 2.52 percent A red wave in Europe. The German Dax fell before 10:00 by over 1.5 percent, just like the French CAC40. In Warsaw, WIG20 lost 1.9 percent

Discount on stock exchanges in Europe after Trump’s decision. Data from 9:40 Source: Investing.com

Marek Zuber believes that for now After Trump’s decision to impose duties on Canada, Mexico and China“we can probably see in Poland Increase in gasoline or diesel prices

The economist emphasizes that admittedly “Western countries have their problems, they do not always agree on the directions of politics, but they constitute a certain Free World Blockwhich for decades was heading in a bright direction, or strengthening relationships. “In his opinion,” when it begins trade war In the block of cooperating countries so far, “the situation looks bad.

“Discussion as from the end of the 19th century”

– On the one hand, it’s hard to be surprised by Trump, because this US trade deficit with many countries is very large. Secondly, they sell with us, but we also sell from them and this difference is $ 50 billion. Here you can understand Trump a bit about trying to change this, but there is another page of the coin. This is a bit of a discussion from the late nineteenth century, when as a result of the industrial revolution, especially those rich countries delighted with the openness of the economies and the theory of effective use of resources, i.e. let everyone produce what they specialize in best and is the most effective – says the expert.

According to him, it was so until it turned out that “someone is better than us.” – Trump behaves a bit – says Marek Zuber.

That is: free market? By all means. Liberalism? By all means, but until American enterprises sell everywhere in the world. However, if someone else is better, the problems begin

– adds the economist. – Can you blame the German Premium car manufacturers that Americans prefer to buy their cars instead of Lincoln or Cadillac? And the world feels a bit: if such a policy was to be continued, then something ended – believes the expert of the WSB Academy.

It will be more expensive. “Inflation impulse”

According to Marek Zuber, if customs duties on the EU were imposed, “we will feel it”. – We will have more expensive. I can’t imagine that the European Union does not work the other way, the question is in what area. If the EU raises, for example, duties on gas, we will shoot ourselves in the foot. It is true that we can buy it in other places, but such duties would generally lead to price increases. I suspect that it will be about other products that we buy quite a lot in the USA. The question of technology is also a great question mark and whether there would be any retorts here – says the economist. Emphasizes that Applying duties would be a “inflation impulse”. He adds that the euro area has no problems with inflation today and is one of the few places in the world where, for now, it has been defeated, but “provided that there are no situations like trade wars”.

The question that everyone raises themselves is Will the United States really benefit. – Trump says that if there are any problems, it’s short -lived. Okay, only that the inflation in the USA is already increased today, interest rate drops and foot dispatchers between Europe and the United States are already very strong. So the question is whether this short -term impact will actually be so short -term and so weak – wonders Marek Zuber.

Cracks in the unity of the Western world?

The economist hopes that if there were a tariff war, it will also be a “impulse to strengthen activities for increasing competitiveness in Europe“.

I would like Europe to go mainly towards the backfilling of gaps, which today in Europe we have in the context of competition with the US

– says an expert from the WSB Academy, who hopes that the first salvos performed by Trump is not the beginning of a large trade war. However, if it comes to it, we will have a “worse time”. In his opinion, we would threaten “cracks in the unity of the Western world, also understood as strengthening economic relations“.

The west “loses” unity, and in the background is BRICS

The question also arises whether it would have a negative impact “when it comes to the political elections of European societies”. – If today one of Trump’s main colleagues supports the extreme right in the largest economy of Europe (it is Elon Musk and German AfD – ed.), Maybe that’s what it’s all about? For me, the worst dimension of all this is that We stop speaking with one voice. If the escalation was to occur, it looks very bad and it testifies to us as the West – he assesses.

In his opinion, what is currently happening looks bad in the context of building attempt counterweights towards BRICS countries. – There they rather go the other way, i.e. the strengthening of relationships, even if in many cases they are difficult today. And here we go the other way and limit the possibility of cooperation. This is also bad information for many countries that observe it all today and wonder which side to talk on. AND This dimension, not only in the context of price increases, is particularly disturbing to me – summarizes the economist.

Source: Gazeta

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