After the euphoria of the recovery, the world economy enters a period of turmoil

After the economic cataclysm of 2020, the recovery of the world economy has been good, but the health situation caused by the appearance of the highly contagious omicron variant of COVID-19, shortages of essential products and inflation cast a shadow over the outlook for 2022 .

A multi-speed recovery

From China to the United States, from Europe to Africa, the pandemic paralyzed the world’s economies almost simultaneously in the spring of 2020.

Two years and 5.3 million deaths later, the recovery is more scattered.

Rich countries have benefited from privileged access to vaccines: the United States has already left behind the traces of its worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the euro zone could have done the same by the end of the year.

But the omicron variant and the sanitary restrictions it has caused will have an impact on sectors such as air transport, gastronomy and tourism.

“The fight against the virus is still far from being won”, Underline the analysts of the British bank HSBC, who consider that the economy is still“far from normal “.

For their part, poor countries do not have enough vaccines. In sub-Saharan Africa, condemned according to the IMF to a slower reactivation, less than 4% of the population is vaccinated in countries such as Cameroon, Ethiopia or Uganda, says Johns Hopkins University.

Even in China, the locomotive of global growth, the recovery is slowing as risks mount, the IMF recently warned.

In China, consumption is struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels, there are fears about the difficulties of real estate giant Evergrande and power cuts penalize business activity.

Inflation and shortages

“The biggest surprise of 2021 was the increase in inflation”Goldman Sachs analysts write in their forecast for 2022.

It was driven by the disorganization of supply chains and the shortage of essential products for international trade, such as semiconductors, a consequence of the explosion in demand during and after the crisis.

But also because of the discouragement of many actors in world trade, such as port unloaders, truck drivers or supermarket cashiers who did not return to work after the lockdowns and caused a labor shortage.

Inflation is also explained by the increase in the price of raw materials (wood, copper, steel) and energy (gasoline, gas, electricity).

Considered for a long time as “temporal”By the main central banks, the rise in prices was finally recognized less temporary by the US Treasury, which is going to accelerate its interest rate hikes next year, still at the risk of slowing growth.

“The question is whether we have really come out of the crisis”said Roel Beetsma, professor of economics at the University of Amsterdam.

At the moment, the IMF continues to expect world growth of 4.9% for next year.

The climate issue

The balance between economic growth and the climate issue is increasingly difficult to achieve, as the conclusions of COP26 showed.

The agreement reached at the conference calls on states to increase their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 2022, but does not set the world on track to limit warming to “far below”Of 2 ° Celsius, as established in the 2015 Paris agreement.

“Thinking in the short term is a common phenomenon, especially among politicians”Laments Roel Beetsma, who advocates for a carbon tax that is uniform across industries and sufficiently dissuasive, which is far from the case today.

Climate change and related natural disasters could also affect food prices.

World prices are already close to their 2011 records, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Wheat is up almost 40% in one year, dairy products 15% and vegetable oils are breaking records.