Global warming will reduce fish biomass by 10% by 2050, according to FAO

By mid-century and under a high emissions scenario, exploitable fish biomass will be reduced by 10% due to the effects of global warming, according to a report published Wednesday by the Organization of American States. United Nations for the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The document ‘Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries: Projections to 2100 from the Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project’ It also reflects that this percentage will be higher by the end of the century.

“Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and their fisheries, and the associated uncertainties, is crucial to designing adaptation programs at appropriate scales”said Manuel Barange, FAO Assistant Director-General for Fisheries and Aquaculture.

By 2100, under a high emissions scenario that projects global warming of 3 to 4°C, that decline could be 30% in 48 countries and territories, while in a low-emissions scenario with warming of 1.5 to 2 °C, this reduction stabilizes and amounts to 10% in 178 countries.

Among the most notable declines, the report includes those of the main fish producers, which worsen by up to 37.7% in areas of Peru and a 30.9% in China, always in high emission scenarios.

“Lower emissions significantly reduce end-of-century biomass losses in almost all countries and territories compared to the high-emissions scenario. This highlights the benefits of climate change mitigation measures for fisheries and aquatic foods.”Barange added.

This document has been produced by an international network of researchers working with FAO to understand the long-term impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries using state-of-the-art numerical models.

A comparison of projected losses in the two scenarios for the end of the century revealed that the reduction in emissions “had marked benefits for almost all countries and territories” and especially in small island states, where the population depends largely on fishing.

In the Pacific, between the 68% and the 90% of the extreme losses projected by the end of the century under the high emissions scenario for the Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu would be avoided under the low emissions scenario.

The report is published shortly after the conclusion of the last edition of the meeting. ‘The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture’, which revealed that global fisheries and aquaculture production hit a new high of 223.2 million tonnes in 2022.

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