Macron and Scholz on the boards. Tusk strengthened. The market for positions is starting

In the two strongest EU countries, the elections to the European Parliament turned out to be a brutal test for the government. After a devastating defeat by the National Rally, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament. For the next three weeks, he will try to stop Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella from coming to power. And the Renew faction, of which the Macronists were the driving force, lost over 20 MEPs.

For German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the result of the European Parliament elections is a humiliation. After more than two and a half years of government, the right-wing populist and anti-European AfD achieved 15.9 percent. defeated Scholz’s party (SPD) and his two coalition partners – the Liberals and the Greens. The European elections were won by the Christian Democrat CDU/CSU (30%). The position of the SPD in the European party of Socialists and Democrats has also weakened, as they have maintained their position with good results outside Germany. The only one of the three leaders forming the Weimar Triangle who has rebuilt and strengthened is Donald Tusk.

Weimar tenors are finally equal

What position do the election results put the Polish Prime Minister in on the European arena? – Donald Tusk gained his strong position not now, but on October 15 last year, when he won the national elections. It was then that a decisive change occurred, Dr. Dominik Hierlemann from the Bertelsmann Foundation, who specializes in European democracy, tells Deutsche Welle. In his opinion, with this victory, Donald Tusk may not have jumped into a solo position behind the wheel of Weimar and Europe, but he has certainly put himself on an equal footing with Macron and Scholz. – Previously, we had a Franco-German axis, which was, is and must be important in the future, but Donald Tusk at the head of the Polish government was a more important change than the European elections – adds the expert.

Hierlemann, co-author of numerous projects implemented by the German government and the European Commission, believes that the European elections turned out to be the actual start of the German election campaign, which will end in Germany next year. – The question is whether we will see any significant European initiatives from the German Chancellor this year, or whether it will be more business as usual until the elections. Many people will be waiting for the results of the German elections, emphasizes a senior advisor at the Bertelsmann Foundation.

Polish-German friendly match in the EPL

But in the EU positions, it will not be Scholz who will play the first violin, but the victorious European People’s Party (EPP) and its two strongest national delegations – German and Polish. After the elections, both the Christian Democrats of Friedrich Merz and Manfred Weber, as well as Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, gained strength. And the EPP itself, although it has always been the largest party in the European Parliament, after years of losses or at most maintaining its assets, recorded a significant increase in numbers – by as many as nine MPs. How will this change the balance of power in Europe’s ruling faction? – It’s true, today the EPP is largely German and Polish. And the Spaniards have a significant numerical contribution, the French and Italian national teams are practically non-existent. There is also Ursula von der Leyen, who needs everyone’s support to remain as president of the European Commission. This puts Donald Tusk and the Civic Coalition in a good position to seek more positions for Poles, admits Hierlemann.

He emphasizes, however, that there are not that many functions to take over. – Poland will certainly take the important position of commissioner – emphasizes the Bertelsmann Foundation expert. – The position of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy is also up for grabs – and this position may also be tempting for Poland due to its important role in the EU’s policy towards Russia’s attack on Ukraine. However, a conservative head or head of the Commission means that it will be unlikely that a conservative will be appointed to the position of High Commissioner, he adds. Various positions in the European Parliament and its committees will also be the subject of bargaining between leaders and factions. Many of them went to the Germans in the previous hand. – And I don’t think they’ll get more now. Or maybe they will even get less than they have now. Donald Tusk will start from a strong position in these internal discussions in the EPP, Hierlemann emphasizes. In his opinion, it would be an exaggeration to proclaim Tusk the main player, the “kingmaker” of the EU, because there are many such “kingmakers” in the EU.

“Kingmaker” Emmanuel Macron is fighting for survival

The “Kingmaker” in the EU for years was – and despite everything still is – Emmanuel Macron. Without his Renew faction, Ursula von der Leyen may forget about a stable majority to govern. Moreover, he owes his rule to Macron, who five years ago blocked the candidacy of the ambitious head of the EPP, Manfred Weber, for the head of the European Commission. Now, after the outclassing of his party in the European Parliament elections, Macron has decided to make a move that the whole of France has been arguing since yesterday whether it was very stupid or very wise, but there is a consensus that it was risky.

How will the domestic electoral fight change the French president’s European agenda? – His poker play will be quickly verified – in the elections at the end of June. If Macron – which is not expected at the moment, but let’s wait – retains the ability to govern even in some coalition, or if the National Rally does not gain a sufficient majority to govern, little will change. But if Macron is forced to cohabitate with the government elected by the National Rally, France will start playing a completely different game, Celia Belin, head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Affairs, tells DW. Belin explains that in the event of cohabitation, the French president will still be – because this is what the French constitution establishes – the leader in foreign policy, but he will have to negotiate part of his agenda and will need the government’s support to, for example, effectively help Ukraine militarily. If France suddenly weakens support for Ukraine, Tusk, who is considered an anti-Russian hawk in the West, will find it more difficult to come to terms with Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen.

System in the Weimar Triangle

The first meetings of the Weimar Triangle composed of Tusk-Scholz-Macron brought the revival of this inactive format. The new Polish-French opening looked particularly good. What if Marine Le Pen, who is much less critical of Russia, begins to influence French policy? – I would be very, very sad because I consider the current arrangement in the Triangle to be almost perfect. This format has greatly helped German-French relations, which are currently not the best. And on strategic issues, France and Poland had very similar positions. I see this as a huge opportunity. For a whole generation, French policy ignored Poland. It is high time to reinvest in Polish-French relations. We used to be much closer, then our relationships drifted apart, says Celia Belin.

The French analyst emphasizes that the change of government in Paris does not mean a change in the Elysée Palace. – We can even expect that Macron will intensify his agenda and actions in those spheres where he retains agency – he says. But he emphasizes that it will be more difficult because in the eyes of French nationalists, Tusk is an anti-nationalist leader who defeated Law and Justice. – It is difficult for me to say how relations between the potential government of Bardella and Le Pen and the Polish authorities could develop. The National Rally and Donald Tusk are not on the same side of the barricade – summarizes Celia Belin.