The far right won in the EU: What does it mean for the US elections?

The recently concluded elections of the European Union They were another milestone for the far-right parties of the continent. They racked up gains in many of the 27 EU countries, and the stunning scale of their victories is already shaking the political class there and attracting attention in the United States.

The success of the parties embarrassed the German chancellor Olaf Scholz by surpassing his party, and led French President Emmanuel Macron to call early legislative elections.

Although vote counting continued on Tuesday, what the right won is just the latest example of how discontent with globalization and immigration has fueled a conservative and populist backlash in prosperous Western democracies. Former President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 was the clearest example of this, but it is unclear whether the trends that propelled the right in Europe will allow him to win another term in November.

That’s because, along with the striking parallels, there are also key differences between the dynamics in Europe and those in the United States. And despite the right’s gains in recent European elections, the political center is likely to retain control of the EU parliament.

“We are clearly at one of those points where the wind can blow in any direction”said Charlies A. Kupchan, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a foreign policy and international relations think tank, based in New York.

What gave impetus to the right in Europe?

All EU countries have different political dynamics, and EU parliamentary elections are often an opportunity for voters in each country to cast a symbolic vote against those in power in their own nation, as they vote for people that they will take up their positions in Brussels, not in their own capital. There has also been a global backlash against the current rulers that does not appear to have any ideological basis.

But the resurgence of the right in Europe is more than symbolic or random. It has been fueled by frustration over the migrant crisis in the EU – frustration that the right has been more than willing to amplify on online platforms – as well as climate change regulations and other issues that are seen as They affect rural and less educated residents the most. Economic growth in much of Europe has remained stagnant since the 2008 global recession, further increasing discontent with the status quo.

Far-right or populist parties now lead Italy and Slovakia and are part of governing coalitions in other countries such as Finland, Sweden and, soon, the Netherlands.

Overall, the right’s strongest support on the continent is among rural voters who have lower levels of education than urban voters—who express greater comfort with the economic and social changes of globalization. All of this probably sounds very familiar to American voters, where there have been similar divisions between Trump’s Republicans and President Joe Biden’s Democrats.

Is Trump riding the same wave?

Trump has embraced the European right, especially Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose self-described “illiberal democracy” has made him an icon for populist conservatives who believe in limiting immigration and the rights of the LGBTQ+ community. He has backed multiple European conservative populists in their campaigns for national leadership, and some of Trump’s key advisers maintain ties to the movement across the Atlantic Ocean.

One of those former advisors, Steve Bannon, noted that the EU elections are “a seismic change” on his Monday podcast.

“It’s like here in the United States, it’s what MAGA does“said Bannon, who used the acronym for Trump’s campaign slogan “Let’s make America great again”. “MAGA pulls us further to the right. And I think that is, not only a good thing, it is necessary for the nation and necessary for the world.”.

Trump’s victory in 2016, despite losing the popular vote, was driven in part by a promise to build a wall between the United States and Mexico to limit migration. This year, he sharply criticized Biden for the increase in migrants crossing the southern border seeking asylum in the United States. Recognizing the relevance of the issue, Biden has turned to the right on immigration by issuing new regulations to close the border if crossings are too numerous.

However, there are some key differences between Trump and European populists, the most significant being his record on democracy. Trump attempted to overturn his loss to Biden in 2020, culminating in the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol. He has embraced that cause in his campaign to regain office, repeating the lie that he was deprived of re-election by widespread fraud, and calling those who stormed the Capitol during an election rally in Las Vegas on Sunday “warriors.”

Steven Levitsky, a Harvard political scientist and co-author of the book “How Democracies Die,” said that stands in stark contrast to European populists.

“They are much less overtly authoritarian than Trump”Levitsky noted. “None of those guys have rejected the election results”.

That has been a political vulnerability for Trump, who continues his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Biden has relentlessly attacked him over the events of January 6 and has indicated that he will focus his campaign on preserving democracy. Trump supporters who attacked state election offices lost every swing state in the 2022 midterms, and Democrats hope the same dynamic will protect Biden this year.

Kupchan said Trump voters may be angrier and more desperate than their European counterparts, who enjoy that continent’s strong social safety net.

“One of the reasons the center has remained in Europe and not the United States is that Americans can fall much further”he explained. “If you are a worker in Europe and you lose your job on a VW production line, you suffer, but not as much as someone (who loses it) in Michigan”.

Trump’s strongest support is among older voters, in contrast to European populists, who experts say do better among younger voters. And in the American two-party system, the current elections amount to a clash of wills with the voters, who will have to choose between Biden or Trump. The race can come down to who is least unpleasant to voters and whether candidates from other parties who cannot gain any political power in the race will get enough votes to doom one of the candidates from the two major parties.

It is far from inevitable that Trump will win. You only have to look at Europe to see that conservative populism has its limits.

The right can only go so far

There have been limits to the advances of the right in Europe. Last year, Poland’s conservative populist government lost power when voters opted for a center-left coalition. The United Kingdom left the EU — a victory for conservative populism — but its conservative Tory party is expected to lose heavily in the next election, even if the opposition Labor Party does not plan to reverse the so-called Brexit.

Even in Hungary, the heartland of conservative populist power in Europe, there has been growing discontent with the current government.

In places where the right has taken power, such as Italy, where Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party doubled its membership in the EU parliament, there has been no radical break. Meloni has kept her country part of the coalition supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia. While she has cracked down on the admission of migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea into her nation, she and the party she belongs to, the neo-fascist-rooted Brothers of Italy, have not made any fundamental changes to the country’s political and economic structure. .

Matthias Matthisj, a professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University, said Italy could be an example of how populists will govern in Europe.

“They’re going to be stricter about Muslim prayer, and you can drive faster on the highway now”Matthisj said. “But on the big issues — the budget, foreign policy — the only way these populists can come to power is if they stay in the center.”.

That’s a contrast to Trump, who has embraced notable changes to American politics and how the federal government could operate if he wins. Some analysts believe that a Trump victory could give European populists like Meloni permission to move further to the right.

Even after the EU elections, a radical change is unlikely. The European People’s Party (Christian Democrats) of which EU President Ursula von der Leyen belongs has moved to the right to counter the populist wave and remains the largest party in the 720-member body. The center still remains in Europe—it just moved to the right. The next question is whether that will happen in the United States in November.