The right wing did not “overturn the table” again. The Green Deal will survive, but it will change

The 2019 European Parliament elections brought a “green wave”, a new opening in climate policy and the creation of the Green Deal. At the end of the term, the future of the project was in doubt. Protests by farmers and others, withdrawal from some of its elements, the rise of the extreme right – all this has translated into questions about retreat and abandonment of climate policy.

European election results show some shift to the right, but not an earthquake. According to the current data (which may change slightly), the large parties closer to the center – which formed the majority coalition in the previous term – have lost only some votes and retain their majority. The center-right European People’s Party (EPP – it includes PO and PSL) did not lose, but gained approximately nine seats; the left-wing Socialists and Democrats have an almost unchanged result (two seats less). The liberal Renew lost the most (22 seats less) – but this was primarily the result of the vote in France.

An alliance with the conservatives or the Greens?

Therefore, the coalition that created the Green Deal maintains the majority in parliament – it has approximately 402 seats out of 720. For a certain, stable majority in votes, it may need another partner. But will he be looked for in the right-wing group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)?

– This is a less likely choice – said Linda Kalcher, head of Strategic Perspectives, at a meeting for journalists. The conservatives from EKR include, among others, Law and Justice, and it is difficult to expect that the Civic Platform, which has a large representation in the center-right group, will agree to an alliance with them. Kalcher also pointed out that there is unlikely to be a grand alliance of conservatives and the extreme right – which was talked about before the elections – because the differences between its individual members may prove to be too much of a problem. – The extreme right has gained, but has not been able to “overturn the table” – she added

Kalcher believes that a much more natural choice would be a tactical alliance of the EPP with the Greens (because not every vote is sufficient for the existing grand coalition). They recorded serious losses in France and Germany, but they will still introduce a total of about 50 MEPs to parliament. – If the European People’s Party wants to have a stable majority for energy security and industrial development, an alliance with the Greens will be needed – he says. Polls conducted before the vote also show that the majority of EPP voters prefer an alliance with other parties than the far right.

Analyst James Kanagasooriam from the FocalData studio, which researched the opinions of Europeans before the elections, pointed out that the Greens’ losses in several countries do not mean a retreat from climate policy (especially since there are also countries where the Greens are gaining). Polls show that climate is not the most important issue for voters, but it is among the topics that matter, especially among those voting for the center-left.

The Green Deal will survive, but maybe under a different name

Much will depend on the final balance of power in the new parliament. The number of MEPs not currently assigned to any group increased by 37, to almost 100. Whether and which groups they join may still slightly change the balance of power. However, we can already draw four important conclusions regarding the Green Deal and climate policy:

1. Possible rebranding – Green Deal under a new name

– There has been one problem with the Green Deal from the beginning: its name, says Julian Popov, former Bulgarian Minister of Environmental Protection. In his opinion, it was too “glued” to one political environment – the Green Party – and in itself raised concerns among more conservative circles. – It was a very serious problem and we had to explain that this is not a deal for the Green Party, that it is for everyone, it concerns the development of industry – he said at a press conference. – We have a communication problem and we need to solve it. We need to establish contact with normal, rational people, he added.

There was already talk about “rebranding” and pursuing climate policy before the elections; Marceli Sommer, among others, wrote about it in “”. At the moment, it is unclear whether a completely new climate program will be created under a new name (perhaps more related to industry or economy), or whether the Green Deal slogan will be muted and existing policies will be communicated in a different way. An example is the American Inflation Reduction Act, in which Joe Biden included a set of economic and climate programs and regulations.

2. Less “green”, more industry and autonomy

However, just changing the name is not everything. Kalcher believes that there may be deeper changes and a new emphasis in climate policy. The issues of industrial development – and European industry – and combining climate goals with ensuring the competitiveness of the economy will become more important.

Continuity in climate policy is also important for business. Individual sectors have different approaches to specific policies, but they have one thing in common: the need for predictability and stability. Many businesses have made huge investments in green technologies. Now international competition may come to the fore, including: with China.

– Economic competitiveness and energy security are at the top of leaders’ agendas, and these two issues are currently the European Union’s Achilles heel. Only decarbonization can ensure this. It will not be called climate ambition, but rather economic security, Popov said.

3. It will be harder to be more ambitious

Unless the EU drastically changes what it has already adopted in its climate policy, the new balance of power may prove more difficult for further steps. The community faces big challenges: implementing established policies, dealing with the issue of agriculture and setting a target for cutting emissions by 2040. The target of 90 percent proposed by the outgoing committee is, on the one hand, the minimum of what the EU wants, on the other – such a decision may be unpopular, points out Julian Popov. His opinion would be “a great pity” because “we need to reduce emissions by 90 percent.” He added that the EU authorities must think very carefully about communication around this goal.

4. This is not the end of questions about the Green Deal – the elections of France and Germany are important

It is important to remember that the European Parliament is only one of the institutions that create and pass law in the Union. The new regulations must also be approved by the Council, i.e. representatives of the governments of 27 countries. This means that its composition changes with each change of government in individual countries – and we have two very important votes ahead of us.

After the defeat of his party and the success of the far right, Emmanuel Macron dissolves parliament and announces early elections. France will elect a new parliament in just a few weeks, and a possible victory of the far right would be a significant change in the balance of power. Also in Germany, the ruling coalition of socialists, liberals and Greens achieved a disastrous result in the elections. Now everything indicates that he will lose power next fall.