Airlines predict a record of almost 5 billion passengers in 2024

The airlines They expect to transport almost 5 billion people around the world this year, surpassing the record of 2019, before the pandemic of Covid-19, its main professional organization announced this Monday.

The International Air Transport Association (Iata)meeting in a general assembly in Dubai, also foresees that the companies will generate a global net profit of US$30.5 billion in 2024 and an unprecedented turnover of US$996 billion.

These results represent “a great success given the recent serious losses due to the pandemic”remarked the general director of Iata, Willie Walsh, before the delegates of his organization that brings together 320 airlines that represent the 83% of world traffic.

The 4.96 billion passengers expected this year would exceed the record of 4.54 billion in 2019. The health crisis caused enormous losses in the air transport sector, estimated by Iata at US$183 billion between 2020 and 2022.

“The post-covid recovery has been remarkable,” Vik Krishnan, an aviation sector specialist at the consulting firm McKinsey, told AFP.

However, there are “contrasts between different regions”exposes: “domestic lines in USA They work very well, as in China”, which is not the case in France and Germany.

Iata estimates that in 2023 airlines made a profit of US$27.4 billion.

Rising costs

Willie Walsh announced a relatively low profitability for his sector, 3% by 2024. “With only US$6.14 per passenger, our profits are not that high, they are barely enough for a coffee in certain parts of the world”Walsh added.

Airline costs are set to hit a record this year, rising to $936 billion, according to Iata. One of the main causes is the fuel bill, estimated at US$ 291,000 million, equivalent to 31% of operating costs, based on a barrel of kerosene at US$113.8.

“It is very important that we manage to maintain lasting profitability. This will allow companies to fully invest in the products desired by our customers, and in the means to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050.” added the CEO.

Air transport currently emits less than 3% of global CO2, but it is pointed out as a problem given that only a minority of the world’s population uses this mode of travel.

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, Iata is committed to the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF – “sustainable aviation fuels”) to the 65%an optimization of air and ground operations and carbon offset initiatives.

However, despite the tripling of SAF production expected this year compared to 2023, they will only represent 0.53% of global fuel consumption in the commercial air transport sector, indicates Iata.

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