Cinema in 2021: lights and shadows of a half recovery

In the ruinous months of 2020 of closed theaters and starving billboards, the who he looked to 2021 as the great year of recovery. Twelve months later, the balance is one of lights and shadows with an industry that does not finish raising its head in the pandemic.

With vaccines as the best ally, cinemas have seen a notable increase in their number of audiences after a depressing 2020, with black perspectives and almost ghostly-looking theaters.

The studios also finally released the vast majority of blockbusters whose premieres were postponed last year.

Thus, cinemas welcomed potential “blockbusters” like “No Time to Die” (Daniel Craig’s last film as James Bond), “Shang-Chi” and “Eternals” by Marvel, “F9″ by ” Fast & Furious ”or“ Godzilla vs. Kong ”.

In the absence of data on the Christmas premieres that could blow up the box office – all eyes are on “Spider-Man: No Way Home”, which in less than a week had raised US $ 587 million in theaters – the consulting firm Gower Street Analytics projected in October that the 2021 global box office will reach $ 21.6 billion.

According to the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), theatrical revenues in 2020 were about $ 12 billion worldwide, so by 2021 it will almost double that number.

However, the comparisons with 2019 are to cry, since that year, following MPAA data, the global box office totaled $ 42.2 billion.

One aspect that worries the entire sector is that Hollywood’s big bets have not just become the money-making machines that were devastating before the coronavirus.

A reflection of this is that, as it already happened in 2020, a Chinese film will be the highest grossing film of the year worldwide, ahead of any Hollywood production.

That honor will go to “The Battle of Lake Changjin” with more than US $ 900 million in revenue amassed almost entirely in Chinese cinemas (in 2020 the film with the highest box office was “The Eight Hundred” with about US $ 460 million. ).

To avoid depression, it should be ignored that “Avengers: Endgame” (2019) raised US $ 2,798 million, which is practically the same amount that the five highest-grossing Hollywood films of 2021 have achieved together (a little more than US $ 3,000 million adding the proceeds from “No Time to Die,” “F9,” “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” “Venom: Let There Be Carnage,” and “Godzilla vs. Kong.”

Green shoots and more questions

If the numbers don’t provide much reason for optimism, there are some trends that allow us to look to 2022 with some hope.

For example, Marvel, which under the Disney umbrella is the biggest generator of cinematic balls in recent years, returned to the big screen after not releasing anything in 2020 and this year has presented “Black Widow”, “Shang-Chi” and “Eternals” (and the new “Spider-Man,” which is a Sony collaboration with Disney, has just arrived).

In certain sections such as comedy for the general public (“Free Guy”), children’s films (“Encanto”), terror (“A Quiet Place Part II”) or the pull of some filmmakers with many fans behind (M . Night Shyamalan with “Old”) there have been some joys that, without reaching the business prior to the coronavirus, show the way to a future with more smiles.

The bad news? Mainstream adult cinema has been disappointment after disappointment with the poor box office of such films as “House of Gucci,” “King Richard,” “The Many Saints of Newark,” “The Last Duel,” “Cry Macho,” “Stillwater. “…

But the worst has been for the musicals, since “In the Heights”, “Dear Evan Hansen” and – pending confirmation of the forecasts – the new “West Side Story” have not managed to seduce the audience.

It is important to remember that, in addition to the coronavirus, 2021 was greatly affected by another novel variable that has been enhanced since March 2020: the coexistence of premieres in cinemas and on streaming platforms.

That may explain the public that went to the movies before the pandemic and that “still” has not returned to theaters, be it because of the comfort of home premieres, fear of the coronavirus, changes in habits, the limited vaccination of children, etc.

In this sense, Warner Bros. has been the most daring studio with its simultaneous releases in theaters and on HBO Max.

Although it will no longer continue in 2022, that strategy provided significant news to the big screen each month (“Dune” as the spearhead) and, although it may not have performed particularly well in terms of theater revenue, it has also served to give a big boost to your digital platform.

All studios, including Disney, have experimented to a greater or lesser extent with distribution windows (the time it takes for a tape to go from the theater to the home market).

Those tests will likely continue into 2022, but any solution comes with your problem in hand.

In this way, the media lawsuit -finally resolved- between Scarlett Johansson and Disney for the income in Disney + of “Black Widow” suggests that the business of “streaming” will become a new and highly contested battlefield in Hollywood.