Bolivia, between optimism and prudence in the face of Boric’s triumph in Chile

The triumph of the leftist Gabriel Boric in the Chilean elections aroused feelings of optimism especially in the government of Luis Arce and his party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS), due to their ideological affinity with the elected president of Chile, while other Bolivian sectors took the news wisely.

The most enthusiastic in Bolivia for Boric’s election were the ruling party who took to social networks to celebrate his triumph, in part because he is from the left and also because they understand that this will open a new stage in the relations between Bolivia and Chile.

One of the first to celebrate Boric’s victory in Bolivia was the president of the Senate, Andrónico Rodríguez, who expressed his wish that this be the beginning of a “new stage of diplomatic relations”Between both countries.

The presidential spokesman, Jorge Richter, considered that “the great homeland, social justice and socialist ideas take to the streets of our Plurinational America”When mentioning the triumphs of Arce in Bolivia, Pedro Castillo in Peru, Xiomara Castro in Honduras and now Boric in Chile.

The Vice Minister of Communication, Gabriela Alcón, highlighted the regional shift to the left and considered that “it will be seen later at diplomatic levels”An eventual improvement in relations with Chile.

The bilateral situation was particularly tense in recent years due to the demand filed in 2013 by the government of Evo Morales before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague in search of a ruling that would force Chile to firmly negotiate access sovereign to the Pacific claimed by Bolivia.

In 2018, the ICJ determined that Chile has no legal obligation to negotiate with Bolivia, although the Bolivian authorities understand that the ruling does not constitute an impediment for there to be a dialogue.

Prudence and skepticism

International affairs analyst Álvaro Del Pozo said that Boric’s arrival in the Chilean government presents a “chance“, but without “imagine impossible scenarios“, After some relationships”judicialized”For the Bolivian maritime claim and another controversy also before the ICJ over the waters of the Silala.

“The first thing that the governments of Bolivia and Chile would have to do is try to rebuild trust between the two countries and set a new agenda that includes the possibility of reestablishing diplomatic relations in the medium term.“, he pointed.

Diplomatic relations broken since 1962, except for a hiatus from 1975 to 1978, due to the lack of solution to the centennial Bolivian maritime claim, although they maintain consulates general in La Paz and Santiago.

For Del Pozo, the ICJ ruling “it is still very fresh“, So it would be a”error“Seek a dialogue based on the maritime issue, a matter that”we must never forget“, But it must work”otherwise”.

He also remarked that beyond the shared ideology in some points, “Chilean institutions are very strong“, So that in his opinion the maritime issue will be”almost untouchable”Regarding the solutions demanded by Bolivia, at least at the beginning of the Boric government.

For the opposition deputy Gustavo Aliaga, a career diplomat, “Chile’s foreign policy remains unchanged” Y “nothing will change at all”Regardless of the ideology of his government.

“That is what we Bolivians do not understand, we think that a left government has arrived and the issues with Bolivia were going to be different”, Like when Michelle Bachelet was president, he indicated.

But “they did not mark any alternative because Chile maintained its foreign policy of not accepting any Bolivian claim”He added.

Aliaga insisted that Boric will be different from Sebastián Piñera “in terms of forms, cordiality with President Arce, but foreign policy is not going to change”And this because in 2022 both countries will meet again in The Hague on the Silala issue.

Economy and trade

In the economic area, the Bolivian Vice Minister of Foreign Trade, Benjamín Blanco, expressed his confidence that bilateral economic relations will be deepened with the new Chilean Government and it is expected to advance on issues such as the fight against smuggling, which will require “a lot of political will ”.

Bolivia maintains a historically deficit trade relationship with Chile, with an accumulated deficit of US $ 4.111 million between 2006 and so far in 2021, said Gary Rodríguez, general manager of the private Bolivian Institute of Foreign Trade (IBCE).

Chile is a country “very competitive“, So that an eventual improvement in the commercial relationship depends more on Bolivia than on the neighboring country, to which no more is sold”for a matter of competitiveness”, He specified.

For Rodríguez, the new scenario that arises with the president-elect “it is of big questions“, Since apart from diplomatic approaches and”declarations of goodwill“, Everything that happens in Chile politically, socially and economically”it is going to have a strong impact on Bolivia ”.