The war in Ukraine could come to an end after more than two years of war, although with many buts and traps. He president of russiaVladimir Putin, has publicly called for the resumption of peace negotiations with Ukraine just when his troops advance both in the heart of Donbas and in the second front that the Russian army has opened in the northeastern region of Kharkiv.

“The discussions have resumed and it is necessary to talk again. They must be resumed not on the basis of what one party wants, but building on agreements reached initially in Belarus and Türkiye (in spring 2022) and that reflect the realities that have emerged on the ground,” Putin clarified.

What is the reality on the ground that Putin is referring to? Even though Putin has reached out to a peace treaty, The Kremlin has made especially considerable progress in recent months in its war against Ukraine. Right now a good part of the South and East has been invaded: almost the entire Donbas area, and key cities like Mariupol.

Kilometers and kilometers that they have conquered through violence that does not belong to them. In no case do they fulfill Putin’s initial ambition when the invasion began: to create a large territorial corridor from Donbas to the border with Moldova. Specifically to Transnistria. Now Russia is in those areas, but it does not control them completely.

This move by Putin raises many unknowns. ¿Why now the president of Russia is open to resume talks with Ukraine to reach a peace agreement? What is the real situation of the war for Putin to launch this offer right at this moment?

Sara Núñez de Prado, professor of Contemporary History at the Rey Juan Carlos University, has explained the hidden motives that have moved the president of Russia to reach out to Ukraine. First of all, Kremlin’s favorable position facing his enemy who has advanced more than in previous moments and, on the other hand, the weak position of his rival regarding his troops. The international context and the sea of ​​doubts that revolve around the fatigue of Ukraine’s main allies: the European Union and the United States also come into play.

If he manages to keep all the invaded land, that entire area of ​​eastern and southern Ukraine, he can sell it to his country as a victory.

The internal context of Russia itself is another incentive to carry out this strategic move. “It seems that it is more in favor of things staying as they are, instead of continuing to fight with an ending that “It will probably be almost the same in the future.”stressed Sara Núñez de Prado.

A peace pact that Putin would sell as a victory to his people. “If he managed to keep all the invaded land, all that area of ​​eastern and southern Ukraine “He can sell it to his country as a victory.”. Although it has not met its objectives, anything that starts Ukraine is synonymous with victory and, above all, that “what it cannot do is arrive empty-handed.”

Therefore, peace with Ukraine would be tainted and would camouflage Putin’s intention to appropriate the invaded territory. Now the ball is in Zelensky’s court. The president will have to deal with the pact that Putin will offer him and with the pressure from both the European Union and the United States to sign the peace treaty with Russia and, by extension, the loss of the areas that belong to Ukraine.

Will Ukraine accept peace?

Sara Núñez de Prado has explained that Zelensky is between a rock and a hard place and that he will surely sit down and cede these territories to Russia: “Probably yes, because given the circumstances, the time it has taken and the fatigue of the powers, the last The remaining option is to negotiate. Negotiate and give something to Putin so you can come home with your hands full. The problem is whether she is going to stay there or ask for more.”

The Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmitro Kuleba, has published on his X account that Putin’s intention is to put the Peace Summit to be held in Switzerland on June 15 and 16 on the back burner: “Putin is trying desperately trying to derail the Peace Summit to be held in Switzerland on June 15 and 16. He is afraid of his success. “Their environment sends these false signals of supposed readiness for a ceasefire despite the fact that Russian troops continue to brutally attack Ukraine while their missiles and drones rain down on Ukrainian cities and communities.”

Regarding the reaction of the Ukrainian people, the word that is most repeated is distrust. kyiv citizens fear a repeat of the 2014 scenario with Crimea, that is, that the conflict be frozen so that within a few years Russia will attack again to appropriate the territory in question; However, fatigue and more than two years of war are beginning to show. This, added to the fact that their country is experiencing the most critical moment, the citizens of Ukraine do not rule out that shaking hands with Putin and ceding the territory in question is the only alternative to putting an end to the war that has massacred their country.