The PSOE will win the european elections with five points ahead of the PP, according to the preview of results of the CIS ‘Pre-electoral elections to the European Parliament 2024’ study. The study revalidates the victory of the socialists and gives the PSOE between 21 and 24 seats and between 32.8 and 35.2% of the votes. He PP would achieve between 18 and 20 seats (27.9-30.2% of the votes), which represents a notable rise, but it would still be far from the PSOE, five points away. The third force would be Vox, with between 5 and 6 seats and between 8.6 and 10.1% of the votes, a result that would improve the support received in the previous call.

Sumar would reach 4 seats (between 5.9 and 7.2% of the votes). Podemos would retain between two and three of the six MEPs it obtained in 2019 when it participated in the elections alongside Izquierda Unida. Citizens would collapse going from seven to between one and two MEPs, according to the sampling carried out from 6,534 interviews carried out from May 8 to 17. As a novelty, the CIS anticipates the entry into the European chamber of the ‘The party is over’ candidacy with between 1 and 2 MEPs.

The CIS already included in its April barometer a first direct question about the elections to the European Parliament, and then the PP appeared in the lead with one point ahead of the PSOE: 23.4% compared to 22.4%, although 21.8% of respondents said that they did not know what they were going to vote for in these elections, another 3.2% that they avoided speaking out, 3% mentioned other minority formations, and 3.5% that they were thinking about abstaining.

A few days later, in a study on ‘Opinions and attitudes towards the EU’, made public at the end of April, the CIS again asked about the intention to vote before the Europeans. It was another direct question for a spontaneous answer, without ‘cooking’ or vote estimation calculation, and it yielded a tie, between socialists and ‘popular’.

Specifically, 19.3% of those interviewed had already announced their intention to vote for the PSOE and 19.2% for the PP, and all this despite the fact that neither of the two major parties had then revealed their head of the list.

Vox appeared very far away, with 4.7%, Sumar with 2.9% and Podemos with 2.3%, and other options such as “Alvise’s party” and Junts, both with 0.9%. Furthermore, the survey reflected 31.8% who were undecided, 6% who avoided answering, and another 4.7% indicated that they would not vote.

2019 results

In 2019, the PSOE won the European elections with 32.86% of the votes and 20 seats, eight above the 12 that the PP garnered thanks to the support of 20.15% of the people who went to the polls. The third party with the most votes was Ciudadanos (7 seats in the European Parliament and 12.18%), and the fourth, Unidas Podemos (10.07% and 6 MEPs).

Vox won three seats, with 6.21% of the votes, the same as Ahora Repúblicas, the coalition of ERC, Bildu and BNG, which obtained 5.58% of the votes. For its part, ‘Lliures per Europa’, headed by Carles Puigdemont, and which included Junts, Democratic Convergència de Catalunya and the PDeCAT, took two seats and 4.54%.

Coalition for a Europe of Solidarity (CEUS), which brought together PNV and Canarian Coalition, among others, achieved a representative in the European Parliament thanks to the 2.82% of the votes it received from the total number of ballots.