President Ebrahim Raisi dies: the reaction of Iranian diplomacy

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash opens a period of instability for the Islamic Republic, but diplomacy will most likely maintain its line.

Raisi was considered one of the favorites to succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, so his death poses a challenge to the country’s authorities.

But at the international level, analysts predict a form of continuity, especially since this area is in the hands of Ayatollah Khamenei and the very opaque Supreme National Security Council.

“A successor as conservative and loyal to the system as Raisi could emerge“, estimates Ali Vaez, Iran specialist at the International Crisis Group.

“In matters of foreign policy, the supreme guide and the body of the guardians of the Islamic revolution (the ideological weapon of the regime) will maintain control of strategic decisions“, the analyst noted on the social network X.

Vaez foresees “more continuity than changes (…) in a period of uncertainty and significant challenges facing the United States and the region”.

“Status quo”

Farid Vahid, Iran expert at the Jean Jaurès Foundation, explains that “Raisi was totally in phase with the Revolutionary Guards“, which they “left a lot of margin and freedom in the region”.

With Raisi, “The decision making was very fluid because it was totally submitted to the Supreme Guide“, Add.

“The question for Iranian conservatives will be to find someone who will be elected (…) and who will not cause too many problems.”

Raisi’s death came at a time of enormous tensions between Iran and Israel, against the backdrop of the war in the Gaza Strip that broke out on October 7.

The situation worsened on April 13, when Iran launched an unprecedented attack against Israel, with 350 drones and missiles, a majority of which were intercepted with the help of the United States and other allied countries.

Iran also supports a network of armed groups of the “resistance shaft” against Israel, which includes Lebanese Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Jason Brodsky, an expert at the Middle East Institute, is expected to “status quo” on this front.

“The Revolutionary Guards report to the Supreme Leader and maintain contact with Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas and other militias in the region. The modus operandi and grand strategy of the Islamic Republic will remain the same”, he explained to the BBC.

Then there is the nuclear issue. Iran denies that it wants to acquire a nuclear weapon, but has failed to fulfill its commitments made within the framework of the 2015 international agreement that governs its nuclear activities, in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.

This pact was shattered with the unilateral withdrawal of the United States in 2018, under the presidency of Donald Trump.

Priority to the nuclear program

The person in charge of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, Ali Bagheri, was named interim chancellor of Iran on Monday, following the death of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdolahian, in the same accident in which Raisi died.

“Iranian diplomacy now has a new leader and the same priority: negotiations on the nuclear program”comments Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World (Cermam) in X.

“The Iranian nuclear program and the decision-making process will remain unchanged because, ultimately, it is the supreme guide and the Supreme National Security Council who manage the nuclear file”Adds Jason Brodsky.

If there are changes, they will occur in the long term.

“Raisi was the future guide. He had the support of all components of the system”says Hasni Abidi. “It is not the disappearance of the Iranian president that is redrawing the cards in Iran, it is the search for the next supreme guide that is at stake.”.

Farid Vahid believes that “Iran will only radically change its foreign policy towards Israel, the United States or its nuclear program through regime change”.