The appointment of the economist Andrei Belousov as the new Minister of Defense of Russia It is a sign that the president Vladimir Putin prepares for a long conflict in Ukraine and is betting on the war economy to win, analysts estimate.
It is difficult to know for now whether the appointment of outgoing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as head of the national Security Council is a demotion, while the future of his former boss Nikolai Patrushev is equally uncertain.
The shake-up, announced days after Putin was re-elected to a fifth term in elections held in March – denounced as fraudulent by his opponents – comes as Russia makes progress in its offensive in the northeast of Ukraine.
Why Belousov?
Andrei Belousov, 65, who has held the position of deputy prime minister of economy since 2020, has no experience in the military or past in the Russian security services.
His priority will be to manage the defense budget, which Russia plans to increase to reach a 30% of total government spending.
Putin “It needs to move even further toward a war economy and effective military spending, and Andrei Belousov is one of the economic officials it trusts most,” Ben Noble, associate professor of Russian politics at University College London, told AFP.
In a rare briefing on Sunday night to explain a decision that surprised many observers, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said Putin chose Belousov to ensure the Defense Ministry was open to “innovation.”
“Putin’s goal is to improve the efficiency of weapons production and meet military needs”wrote Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the consulting firm R.Politik. “In this context, Belousov is a logical choice,” he added.
In Putin’s eyes, Belousov, subject to US, British and European sanctions, has the right profile.
“The appointment of Belousov […] “It means the beginning of an important audit and a restructuring of all financial models.”notes the Russian Telegram channel Rybar, considered close to the military.
Towards a long war
For analysts, this appointment indicates that the Kremlin is preparing Russia for a multi-year war against Ukraine, where the balance between weapons supply and production could determine who will emerge victorious.
“The main conclusion is that Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long confrontation with the West”Noble noted.
Belousov firmly believes in the doctrine according to which Russia is surrounded by “a circle of enemies” and that he is the only figure among the team of economists who supported the 2014 annexation of Crimea, which was followed by strong sanctions, indicated a source cited by the Russian-language information site The Bell.
The new roles of Sergei Shoigu as the new head of the Security Council and his predecessor, Nikolai Patrishev, are for now considered uncertain.
Shoigu, an important figure in the Russian government in the 1990s before Putin came to power, was always considered a comrade of the president.
But his reputation was tarnished by criticism from Wagner’s late mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who branded him a “trash” and for the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, suspected of having accepted bribes.
However, his appointment as head of the Security Council shows that he has not been totally excluded from the elite, although “It remains to be seen what its political and strategic role will be,” Ben Noble indicated.
Nikolai Patrushev, whose public appearances are rare, was always considered an important figure and one of the great supporters of the doctrine of “circle of enemies.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov stated that he had been dismissed for having accepted “a new position” that will be known in the “next days”.
Belousov, who was an independent advisor to the different prime ministers between 2000 and 2006, has been in charge during the first two years of conflict in Ukraine, among other things, of support measures for Russian companies.
His appointment to the defense front distances the ministry from decision-making on the battlefield and reinforces the power of the military General Staff, led by General Valery Gerasimov.
“The army has always been the prerogative of the chief of the General Staff, who continues its activities and no changes are contemplated for now in this regard,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov.
It may interest you
- Presence of EU countries at Putin’s inauguration does not contradict support for kyiv
- Putin’s challenges for the next six years
- Putin promises victory in Ukraine as he swears in his fifth term as president of Russia
Source: Gestion
Ricardo is a renowned author and journalist, known for his exceptional writing on top-news stories. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he is known for his ability to deliver breaking news and insightful analysis on the most pressing issues of the day.
