Brazil: extreme weather events will become more frequent, experts warn

Worst climate disaster of the history of Rio Grande do Sul (south), Brazilclaimed at least a hundred lives and devastated the economy of that agricultural state, which will take months and even years to recover, according to the authorities, who speak of the need to “a Marshall plan” assistance.

Other tragedies have recently struck Brazila country of continental dimensions.

Last year, it was the scene of 1,161 natural disasters, more than three per day on average. That is a record since records began in 2011, according to the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts of Natural Disasters (Cemaden).

Brazilian geography itself partly explains this vulnerability, with regions that flood in the south and others that suffer repeated periods of drought, such as the semi-arid region in the east. It also affects the natural phenomenon of El Niño.

But due to the progressive warming of the planet, extreme or rare events “They are becoming more frequent and more extreme, and this is expected to continue“José Marengo, Cemaden research coordinator, told AFP.

“Ignored” predictions

He climate change “It is no longer a topic of scientific discussion: it came out of the books and became a reality“, declared to AFP Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, which makes up more than a hundred environmental organizations and research.

Extreme rainfall in Brazil They caused at least 132 deaths and more than 9,000 injuries last year, while some 74,000 people lost their homes, according to Cemaden. Material damage was estimated at more than 5,000 million reais (US$ 1,000 million).

In Rio Grande do Sul, the balance will probably be worse than in all of 2023: the preliminary balance of the floods reports 100 dead and 130 missing. The number of victims and economic losses are still incalculable.

In recent years, floods also hit the city of Recife (Pernambuco, northeast) and the states of Minas Gerais (southeast) and Bahia (northeast).

These extreme rains in the southern south america They are a recurring prediction of climate models for decades, according to the Observatory, and that information is “ignored by successive state governments”, lamented Suely Araújo, public policy coordinator of the platform.

“As long as the relevance of adaptation is not understood (at climate change), these tragedies will continue to happen, getting worse”Araujo stressed.

Fires and deforestation

Carbon dioxide emissions into the environment are mainly responsible for global warming. The reduction of forests due to deforestation for the expansion of agricultural activities reduces the absorption capacity of these greenhouse gases. greenhouse effect.

But the fire continues to rage. Between January and April, more than 17,000 forest fires were recorded, more than half of them in the Amazon region, where they increased 153% in one year, according to the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE).

The Amazonthe largest rainforest on the planet, also suffered a historic drought last year.

A positive fact: in its first year in office, in 2023, the government of leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reduced deforestation in the region by half. Amazonafter it skyrocketed during the administration of his predecessor, the far-right Jair Bolsonaro.

“Work all the time”

Marengo believes that to avoid new tragedies like the one in Rio Grande do Sul, the population and governments must first take the alerts seriously.

“Since we have no way to stop the rain, we must prepare by anticipating associated disasters, so that populations do not create risk scenarios and that governments work all the time, because we must always be prepared for disasters, not only when they happen.”he explained.

Astrini advocated implementing an early response plan for the most vulnerable areas of Brazilbut considered that “we are very far from that”.

He mentioned the lack of budget for prevention policies or the approval of laws that encourage the increasing occupation of risk areas by the population or the deforestation.

“Brazil is a country that suffers a lot from climate changewhich brings social and economic harm: people who die and people who lose everything“lamented Astrini.