Putin’s challenges for the next six years

The president of Russia, Vladimir Putinwas inaugurated this Tuesday for his fifth term at the head of the Kremlin, which promises to be the most turbulent since he came to power almost a quarter of a century ago.

These are the main challenges you will face Putin during the next six-year term.

Wear and tear in Ukraine

After the failure of the lightning operation launched in February 2022, the war in Ukraine has dragged on for more than two years and there is no sign of a peaceful settlement either.

The enormous spending on weapons and its military cooperation with regimes such as North Korea or Iran allow it to prolong the current war of attrition almost indefinitely, but society needs results and the families of those mobilized demand its rotation.

Precisely, the possibility of a new mobilization to replace the casualties on the front without provoking an outbreak of popular discontent is one of the main challenges of Putin in the short and medium term.

This is a very unpopular measure among the population – as demonstrated by the September 2022 call-up – which caused a mass exodus of men of military age from Russia.

Bad relations with the West

During the new mandate of Putinanother of his tasks will be to manage the battered relationship with the West.

In his investiture speech for his fifth term, the head of the Kremlin assured that Moscow is not closed to dialogue, but will not allow Western powers to contain Russia’s development.

In this sense, he once again defended the creation of a new world order to end the hegemony of the United States, a country with which Russia’s relations are going through the worst moment in history, as recognized by officials from both countries.

Ties with the European Union, once Moscow’s main trading partner, are also at an all-time low, something Russia is trying to compensate for by deepening its ties with Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Keep the economy afloat

Russia has managed to maintain a good growth rate despite Western sanctions. Thus, in 2023 the country’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.6%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers that the Russian economy has strengthened because oil export volumes have remained stable due to trade with countries not aligned with the sanctions.

However, inflation in 2023 stood at more than 7% and the growth in food prices is becoming increasingly noticeable not only for residents of small cities but also for residents of the capital and other large cities.

Keeping the economy afloat and not allowing the ruble to collapse – as will happen in 2022, after the start of the war – will be one of the challenges that await Putin over the next six years.

Another pending issue will be to progressively reduce dependence on the military industry, which has dangerously become one of the locomotives of the national economy.

Silence internal dissent

After the death in prison of the opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, considered the number one enemy of the head of the Kremlin, Putin has no rivals within the country capable of overshadowing him or calling into question his leadership.

Prominent figures of Russian dissidents were forced to go into exile abroad after the country passed a series of repressive laws that threatened them with long prison sentences for criticizing the power or actions of the Russian Army in Ukraine.

Independent media were also forced to move their newsrooms abroad to be able to report on Russian reality and counter propaganda.

Putin He intends to continue tightening the screws in order to prevent the resurgence of an internal opposition – he calls it the fifth column – that takes advantage of the weariness with the war.

Putin, 2036

After reforming the Russian Constitution in 2020, Putin eliminated legal obstacles to perpetuate himself in the Kremlin almost unlimitedly.

After the elections this March, the 71-year-old Russian leader will be able to continue governing until 2030 and then run for re-election for another six-year term.

However, if he decides to retire in 2030, Putin will have to start preparing his dolphin already during this term, something that at the moment seems very far in time.