By looking only at the headlines, politicians can make a big mistake before the elections. And the task is “trivial”

Reports of a wave of opposition to green policies in Europe are “largely exaggerated,” experts write. As part of the new study, 15,000 people were interviewed. people in France, Germany and Poland with their views on climate policy. It turns out that it still has the support of the majority of societies. However, there are huge differences between voters of some parties.

In recent weeks, in the media – especially foreign ones – you can read about the European Union. Farmers and others are protesting, among others: against elements of the Green Deal, the Polish right for adopting green EU policies. In many countries, polls show the rise of right-wing and far-right parties that have long been critical of the Green Deal and the EU in general. Other parties are adapting to the new atmosphere and . Is it right? shows that this is not necessarily the case – because the majority of voters, especially those supporting the left and liberals, still want an ambitious climate policy.

According to experts, politicians should not make the mistake of giving in to what the headlines say about the “rejection” of climate policy. In their opinion, creating an electoral offer that will reconcile the requirements of climate policy and the concerns that some citizens have about it is downright “trivial”.

Majority support, but with polarization

The European Parliament elections in June in Poland are still overshadowed by the upcoming local government elections. However, the campaign is in full swing in Europe and we can expect it to gain momentum here as well. One of the topics is climate policy. Five years ago, the elections ended with a great success for the Greens, and over time, the Green Deal and a series of pro-climate policies were created.

Now surveys include: in France and Germany they show the growth of far-right parties and the losses of large parties that are closer to the center. The European Commission, under the influence of farmers’ protests, is withdrawing from some elements of the Green Deal.

However, the results of a survey conducted among 15,000 people in three countries do not show the majority of citizens turning away from green policies. It shows that most voters are concerned about climate change, do not think climate regulation will cost them their jobs and want more ambitious climate policy. When asked whether the EU’s climate policy has “gone too far”, a majority in every country (51% in Poland) answers no – and that they are in favor of even more ambitious action.

In each of the three countries, there is a very clear difference between how voters of particular parties answer this question. Climate policy has the greatest support among voters of the Left, and, more clearly, the majority of voters for KO and Third Way. PiS voters are quite evenly divided between supporters and opponents, with a clear group of undecideds. Confederation is the only grouping whose voters are mostly negative (just over 50 percent) towards the EU’s green policies.

60 percent Poles say that they already feel the negative effects of climate change or expect them in the coming years (in France, as many as 80%).

Key voters in the middle

In the case of polarization between groups with a clear attitude (for or against) to climate policy, the group of voters “in the middle” is crucial. “Green” and left-wing voters declare support for virtually all elements of climate policy, while far-right voters almost completely reject them. Those closer to the center, some liberals and conservatives, have more ambiguous views. They may support “green” policies, but are concerned about the costs involved.

Politicians who care about climate issues and have them on their agendas should focus on communicating with them. It is important to show aspects such as green investments and industrial development (which is a counter to what the far right says about the “folding of Europe” in the context of green policies).

According to experts, political parties “should not waste the coming months trying to outdo each other on how to appeal to those who are allegedly ‘tired’ of the climate issue, but rather compete for specific regulations allowing for the ‘greening’ of the economy.” The study shows that skeptics of the fight against climate change are – perhaps a loud – but minority. Additionally, this group has not been growing in recent years, and opposition to, for example, the Green Deal is based primarily on views and ideological issues, rather than real concerns about the effects of these policies. Opposition to climate policy is most related not to fears about the increase in the cost of living or job loss, but to… support for parties (in the case of Poland, Confederation) that oppose climate issues. Bans and measures related to fees are widely unpopular, especially the ban on the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2035, restrictions on gas boilers and emissions fees.

For everyone “except radical-right voters,” the question is not whether to fight climate change, but how to do it the right way, the study authors write. In their opinion, politicians developing an appropriate offer for this majority of voters is “trivial”, and in addition, abandoning ecology issues altogether will be misunderstood by the majority of society. How can leaders ensure that their declared support for climate policy translates into a vote for specific solutions? Investments appeal to centrist voters – the expansion of energy networks, the development of public transport and the construction of green industries.

Messages consistent with such expectations can be heard from some Polish politicians. On Friday, the deputy minister of climate, Urszula Zielińska, said: – Enough of talking about closing down and leaving. It’s time to talk about building, investing and creating a country development plan.

The study that is the basis of the report was conducted in December 2023 on a representative sample of 15,000. people in Germany, France and Poland.