With Venezuela’s elections set for July, this is Maduro’s outlook

The race for the presidency Venezuela has so far only one candidate, the current president, Nicolás Maduro. And it is not because of a lack of possible rivals or because of great affection on the part of voters, it is because he is the only politician with the means to campaign and a guaranteed place on the ballot.

The electoral authorities announced this week that the long-awaited elections will be held on July 28. Maduro is certain to represent the powerful United Socialist Party of Venezuela. His government has removed his main opponent and the other candidates lack the political machinery to carry out a viable campaign.

The announcement reflected the government’s intention to put behind the heated debate over its decision to prevent opposition leader María Corina Machado from holding public office. Candidates must register before the end of March, giving Machado and other opposition factions less than three weeks to decide their next steps.

Machado is the first real political threat Maduro has faced in recent years.

The former legislator maintained a low profile for a long time and rose to the top of the opposition last year thanks to a careful message that softened her image of an inflexible politician and the void left by other leaders who went into exile.

The Maduro government acted to block the options, starting with the announcement last June that he was prohibited from running in the elections.

The administrative veto did not prevent him from attending a primary in October, because the opposition coalition Unidad Plataforma, which is backed by the United States, organized the vote without the help of the Venezuelan electoral authorities.

The free market defender won with more than 90% of the votes. The Venezuelan high court complicated her presidential aspirations in January by upholding her disqualification, although she has continued to campaign and rejected the idea of ​​electing a replacement, stating that the people gave her a mandate.

Machado has refused to explain his strategy to overcome the veto and assured that he will remain in the race “until the end.”

The ruling party is expected to officially name Maduro as its candidate next week. The legislators chanted happily “Come on Nico! “Let’s go Nico!”during the legislative session on Tuesday after the announcement of the election date.

Maduro became the country’s interim president in March 2013 after the death of Hugo Chávez, whose charisma earned him the affection and votes of millions of people. Maduro was narrowly elected a few months later and was re-elected in 2018 to a six-year term in an electoral process that was widely criticized as fraudulent.

Now, some pro-government politicians and a former television reporter have expressed their intention to confront Maduro. None have the party structure behind them, the voter support or the financial resources to carry out a competitive campaign.

In Venezuela, election campaigns often include the distribution of free food, appliances, and other items on behalf of the ruling party’s candidates, which also receive favorable coverage in the state press. Opponents and their supporters often have trouble finding places to gather without being harassed by pro-government activists and finding fuel to travel around the country.

10 candidates participated in the Unitary Platform primaries, including Machado, who, although he does not belong to the group, presented himself as an independent. The challengers he defeated have closed ranks around her.

“It is understandable that María Corina Machado plays the card of being the candidate. “She won the primaries clearly,” said Christopher Sabatini, Latin America researcher at London-based Chatham House. But his inflexible rhetoric could hinder the opposition from preparing a viable alternative, he added.

In the hope that Machado’s veto will disappear and be overridden somehow, the Unitary Platform could now register a provisional candidate and replace Machado with that person up to 10 days before the elections. The change would have to be approved by the electoral authorities.

The date of July 28 — which was Chávez’s birthday — was chosen from more than 20 proposals based on the opinions of allies of the ruling party, business associations, university officials, religious groups and other organizations.

The Unitary Platform did not participate in any of the meetings from which the electoral proposals came out. The group and the government have held negotiations on and off since 2021. In October they reached what at the time seemed like a fundamental agreement for fair elections.

The pact, signed in Barbados, contemplated holding the elections in the second half of 2024 in the presence of international observers and included a process so that presidential candidates could resort to any veto to run for office.

The agreement gave Maduro some relief from the economic sanctions imposed by the United States. But one of them has already been reimposed after the Venezuelan government tested the limits of the pact, even opening criminal investigations against the organizers of the primaries that Machado won.

Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, highlighted that the government chose the date of Chávez’s birthday to hold the elections and announced its decision on March 5, the anniversary of his death. . This indicates his intention not to allow anyone other than the successor chosen by the late former president, Maduro, to win the elections, Berg noted.

The electoral plans assume that Maduro and his representatives “They are not complying with the spirit of the agreement, nor with the text,” he added.

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