A really old continent. This is how the EU is aging. Forecasts? You can go gray

44.5 years – this was the median age of the European Union population as of January 1, 2023. These data were published by Eurostat on Wednesday. This means that half of the people in the EU are older than 44.5 and the other half are younger than 44.5. In this respect, Poland is still one of the slightly younger nations. Our median last year was 42.6 years, which gave us 12th place in the ranking. The lowest median age is in Cyprus (38.4), Ireland (39.1), Luxembourg (39.7) and Malta (40.1), the oldest are the inhabitants of Italy (48.4), Portugal (47), Bulgaria (46 .8) and Greece (46.5).

Our EU is getting old. Poland sets the pace

However, Eurostat data shows that the EU’s population is aging rapidly. A decade earlier – in 2013 – the median age in the community was 42.2 years. In ten years it has grown by 2.3 years. The median increased in almost all EU countries, the exceptions being: Malta (decrease by 0.4 years), Sweden (decrease by 0.1 years) and Germany (no change). Unfortunately, Poland is among the countries with the highest increase in the median – with a result of 3.8 years – behind Portugal, Greece, Spain, Slovakia, Italy and Bulgaria (3.9-4.4).

In fact, these statistics show what the problem is with Poland. We do not yet stand out particularly from the EU in terms of our demographic situation (e.g. median age or the percentage of the oldest people in the population). But the changes taking place in our country are the fastest or almost the fastest in the entire Community.

For example, in no other EU country has the percentage of people aged 65 and over increased so much between 2013 and 2023. In 2023, it amounted to 19.9 percent in Poland, compared to 14.4 percent. a decade earlier. We are still below the EU average (21.3%), far from record holders such as Italy or Portugal (24%), but in terms of the pace of changes taking place in our country, we are at the forefront. Although – let’s be clear – the aging of society is a feature of the entire EU. The percentage of people aged 65 and over is growing in every EU country.

The situation is similar with the elderly demographic dependency ratio, i.e. the percentage of people aged 65 and over to the number of people aged 15-64. The EU average here was 33.4%. – that is, for one senior (65 years and over), there were three people of working age (here defined as 15-64 years). Poland is again below the EU average – with a result of 30.8%. – but in no other EU country has this indicator increased since 2013 as much as in our country.

This is how the EU will age (and decrease in numbers).

Population aging is a trend that started in Europe several decades ago. This tendency is visible in the changes in the age structure of the population and is reflected in the increasing share of older people, with a simultaneous decline in the share of people of working age in the total population.

– explains Eurostat. As proof, he shows the age pyramid for the EU in 2008 and 2023. The differences are visible to the naked eye. The “bulge” – representing the most numerous age groups – is moving up, while the bottom of the pyramid (i.e. children, adolescents, young and middle-aged people) is losing weight.

Eurostat explains that, of course, the increase in the share of older people in society can, to some extent, be explained by increasing life expectancy (with a break for the pandemic). On the other hand, we are also dealing with a downward trend in the number of births in most EU countries (and unfortunately Poland has also been leading here in recent years, ). Therefore, current demographic trends will continue.

The European statistical office recalls its demographic forecast for 2023. It showed that the EU population will reach its maximum in 2026 at the level of approximately 453 million people. It will then gradually decline to below 420 million in 2100. Of course, we are talking about the EU in its current form. How many and what countries it will have in 2100 (if it exists at all) – it is impossible to say.

Only Italy is expected to shrink more than Poland in terms of numbers (Poland by over 8.1 million inhabitants, to approximately 29.5 million – and this is assuming a migration balance of +5.2 million people). In percentage terms (Poland is expected to lose approximately 22 percent of its population by 2100), Eurostat also has worse forecasts only for a few countries – Lithuania, Latvia, Greece, Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania.

Of course, during this time the demographic structure of the (current) EU countries will change significantly, including: the percentage of people aged 85 plus will increase dramatically – from 6%. the entire EU population in 2023 to over 15%. in 2100. Until the age of approximately 65-75 years (depending on gender), the age pyramid in 2100 will be thinner than today. It is clearly visible only above, especially for people aged 85 and older.

While today slightly more than one fifth of EU residents are 65 years old or older (21.3% in 2023), in 2100 it will be almost every third (32.5%).

This increase will come primarily at the “expense” of the percentage of people of working age, which in turn means a significant increase in the EU’s demographic dependency ratio. To put it simply, how many people must work for one senior or generally for one person of non-working age (seniors, children and youth).

According to Eurostat’s forecast, at the end of the 21st century, the elderly dependency ratio in the EU will increase from the current level of approximately 33%. around 60 percent While today there are three people of working age (defined as 15-64) for every person aged 65 and over, at the end of this age it will be less than two people. If we include children and young people aged 0-14, i.e. at the age defined as pre-working, the total dependency ratio will increase to nearly 84% by 2100. from the current ones, less than 57 percent

The median age of EU residents is expected to exceed 50 years by 2100 (vs. 44.5 years now). In other words, according to Eurostat’s forecast, at the end of the 21st century, every second resident of the European Union (of course in its current form) will be over 50 years old.