The IEA expects global oil demand to slow in 2024

The global demand for Petroleum will slow down this year, with a projected growth of 1.2 million barrels per day compared to the increase of 2.3 million in 2023, the International Energy Agency announced this Thursday. (IEA).

Last year ended with an average demand of 101.8 million barrels per day and in 2024 it is expected to reach 103 million, the IEA said in its monthly report on the oil market.

This trend of lower demand growth this year follows the slowdown already recorded in the fourth quarter of last year,

China, India and Brazil will continue to “dominate the growth” of demand in this year, while in the countries of the OECD The increase will be “tepid” due to the slowdown of their economies, the document adds.

In the Chinese case, even though in the last quarter of last year there was a “sharp drop” in demand, of 500,000 barrels per day, compared to the previous quarter.

In global production, it registered a month-on-month decrease in January of 1.4 million barrels per day due to the strong Arctic storm that paralyzed production in North America for a few days, and to the “new voluntary cuts” in the production of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+), for about 300,000 barrels per day.

Another factor, the agency notes, was the “escalation of hostilities” in the Middle East.

The IEA already warned last month of the “high” risk of transit through the Red Seawhich, he pointed out, could lead to supply problems and increases in prices in European markets.

In this report, he confirmed that “the diversion of oil tanker traffic from the Red Sea congested Asia-Europe supply chains and delayed flows to the Atlantic.”

However, extraction at record levels in the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada will contribute to increasing supply outside the OPEC+with 1.6 million additional barrels per day this year, compared to the 2.4 million increase in 2023.

Global oil stocks plunged by about 60 million barrels in January, according to preliminary data, and onshore inventories fell to their lowest level since 2016.

“Given rising geopolitical risks and low global oil inventories, a modest (production) surplus can help contain market volatility,” confirms the IEA.

And the agency highlights the increase in prices in January, due to both the conflict in middle East as well as the disruption of production in North America.

As an example, he points out that Brent rose an average of US$5 per barrel in January, its first monthly increase since September, and at the time of writing the report it was trading at US$83.

As for Russia, the IEA report states that crude oil exports remained stable at about 7.7 million barrels per day between December and January, but revenues rose 1.7% month-on-month to US$15.7 billion due to rising prices. .

Specifically, the prices of a Russian barrel, which had started January at US$60, ended the month close to US$66, although in February it fell again to US$61.

The report warns that recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and other oil facilities could have a “significant” impact if repair work is prolonged.