The EU wants to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90%. “The fastest changes await the energy sector”

European Commission for the EU to set itself the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90%. until 2040. This recommendation is only the beginning of the debate, because translating this proposal into specific regulations – and persuading 27 EU countries to adopt them – will be the responsibility of the new Commission after the European elections. If an agreement is reached, the goal will be included in the European Climate Law.

The official announcement on the 2040 target was published on Tuesday. Along with it, a 600-page assessment of the effects of such a policy was shown. It was previously expected that the Commission would recommend cutting emissions by 90%. The EU’s scientific advisory body on climate change published a report last year according to which the EU must cut emissions by 90-95%. by 2040 if it wants to meet its own goals and the provisions of international agreements.

The European Union has set itself the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050 in order to stop climate change at a moderately safe level. This means that emissions must be reduced to almost zero by then, and the remaining greenhouse gases must be removed from the atmosphere (either through natural means such as forests or with the help of technology). To make achieving the goal realistic, intermediate thresholds are set. So far, it has been established that emissions are to decrease by 55% by 2030. (compared to 1990). EU greenhouse gas emissions have been falling for several decades:

The chart below shows by what percentage the emissions of the 27 EU countries have decreased so far compared to 1990. By 2021, we managed to reduce them by about 30%. This shows that we need to accelerate decarbonization to achieve the 2030 target (55% emission reduction) and subsequent targets.

What does this mean for Poland?

Target to cut emissions by 90%. is common to the entire EU and does not necessarily mean that every country – including Poland – must reduce it by the same amount. However, it certainly shows that by 2040 we should move away from coal and, to a large extent, from gas in the production of electricity.

– For Poland, this indicator will be significantly lower due to circumstances such as cold and dark winters, low hydropower potential, the fledgling nuclear program, and lower level of wealth – says Michał Smoleń from the Instrat Foundation. However, he points out that, according to the foundation’s analyses, “reducing our emissions by approximately 65-70% is not only possible, but also economically optimal.”

– According to our analyses, the fastest changes are expected in the energy sector and heat production – says the expert. In his opinion, by 2030 we can (thanks to renewable energy, heat pumps, thermal modernization) significantly reduce our dependence “on expensive Polish coal or unreliable imported fuels.” In the next decade, coal and gas power plants will be “relegated to the role of a rarely activated reserve.”

It’s a long way to achieving your goal

Target to reduce emissions by 90%. by 2040 is currently the European Commission’s proposal. Now it will be officially consulted, and for it to become law, the consent of all EU member states will be needed (just like before for the goal of climate neutrality by 2050 and cutting emissions by 55% by 2030). And here the stairs begin.

First, it is not obvious that all countries will be willing to agree to such a goal. Before the official publication of the EC document, only Denmark declared directly that it would support the goal of reducing emissions by 90%. Bulgaria said it needed to be “seriously discussed”.

In turn, Polish deputy minister of climate and environment Urszula Zielińska, the EU “should definitely adopt ambitious goals”, including the goal of reducing emissions by 90%. She added that “we have to do it in a constructive way, taking care of the social aspects.” Later, the Ministry of Climate and Zielińska herself stated that it was only her “opinion”, which expressed readiness for discussion, and not the official position of the government. This – as promised – will be known after the official presentation of the Commission’s proposal.

Discussion about the goal will now take place during the election campaign for the European Parliament elections, and also alongside farmers’ protests, partly related to climate policy. Both can influence conversations. And right-wing populists, who have long been attacking climate policy, may use this during the election campaign. And the new European Commission and the new parliament will be responsible for specific work on the 2040 goal.

Energy independence and citizens’ health

Scientific experts who recommended even higher emission reduction levels (90-95%) emphasized that they also took into account the practical possibilities of achieving it and social justice. Thanks to technologies and improved efficiency, we will be able to almost completely eliminate coal and gas from electricity production by 2040, as well as decarbonize other sectors of the economy.

Their analysis “points to numerous benefits from reducing dependence on fossil fuels.” Experts mention, among others: reducing the EU’s dependence on fossil fuel imports and thus increasing its energy security; positive impact on health, air quality; reducing water shortages and protecting nature.