Latinos, an electoral bloc that is beginning to change sides in the US

Antonio Muñoz, a former police officer turned restaurateur, feels the political winds changing in his native Nevada, where part of the latin communitytraditionally a Democrat, is beginning to lean towards the Republican side ahead of the November presidential elections.

“I voted Democrat in the last election, but this year I am in a dilemma, I don’t know what to do,” says the man in his colorful taqueria in Las Vegas.

Biden81, will most likely seek re-election in November against the former Republican president donald trump77, whom he defeated in 2020 and who is campaigning for his party’s nomination.

Despite facing dozens of charges of electoral irregularities and other legal accusations, Trump leads the Republican primary by far.

Initial polls also place him in Nevada above Bidenwho won the state by a slight difference in the last election.

Muñoz sees a Democratic bastion still strong in the city. “But I have spoken with friends who are in the middle like me,” says the 48-year-old man who predicts that the state will be the scene of an aggressive campaign with both parties competing for the Latino vote.

Generational change

The Latino community is one of the fastest growing in USA.

“One in five Americans who could vote in this election is Latino,” explains Mark Hugo López, director of research on race and ethnicity at the Pew Research Center.

Although with regional variations, such as the tendency in Florida to favor Republican candidates, the significant Latino bloc has historically been Democratic, but many are beginning to break tradition.

In Texas, a state bordering Mexico, Trump recorded electoral gains among Latinos in 2020 compared to 2016, López recalls.

“Even in California [enclave demócrata]a New York Times analysis showed a slight decline in the percentage of Latinos who supported Biden compared to Hillary Clinton in 2016″, said.

“It is a very diverse panorama, but it seems that Republican candidates like trump “They have scored points with Latinos in places that were traditionally very Democratic in 2020.”

Although it is very early in the electoral race, the polls show that this did not change with the Democratic administration.

“Joe Biden’s approval rate among Latinos remains low,” Lopez said. Our most recent numbers show that in January, 65% of latinos They failed their work, and 32% approved it.”

With the rapid expansion of the Latino community, the new generation seems to be influencing this change.

“In a place like Nevada (…) there are many immigrants but also many Americans who are children of immigrant parents, as well as a growing number of people who are the third or next generation,” says Lopez. “And they tend to lean more toward the Republican side than other groups of Latinos.”

It is something that María Elena Castro, an activist with the NGO Mamás con Poder and identified with the Democrats, notices at home when listening to her son and nephews talk about politics.

“Young boys don’t know much about the past, what their parents had to go through,” said the 51-year-old Mexican-American.

“The young Latino vote is in favor of the Republicans due to the lack of information.”

“Are we better?”

For Latinos, the economy and immigration issues are priorities. And they feel that in both, the government Biden is missing.

And this is where Republicans have room for action, says Jesús Márquez, a political consultant linked to the Trump campaign in Nevada.

Thousands of people arrive daily at the United States border in search of asylum, a situation that has overwhelmed the country’s already congested immigration system.

As a result, Biden is attacked from all sides, with the widespread perception that the border with Mexico is out of control.

“That is something that Latinos who have lived here for decades do not like, because they feel that many people are skipping their place in line,” Marquez said.

The issue has become a focus of the Republican campaign and a headache for the Democrats, as well as the widespread opinion that the economy is bad.

Concern about maintaining employment and covering basic expenses plays a crucial role among voters, but according to recent polls, this negative assessment of the economic situation is even more intense among Latinos.

“Latinos, the working class in general, struggle with the high cost of living,” says Marquez.

“Latinos remember how they were during Donald Trump’s administration, which was recently,” he adds. “And the question they ask is, are we better off now or when Trump was President?”