Unofficially: This is what liberalized agricultural trade with Ukraine will look like. There is a project

The heads of the EU commissioners’ cabinets – according to unofficial information – decided at their weekly meeting on Monday (29/1/2024) that the European Commission is to adopt next Wednesday a proposal for another one-year extension of the liberalized EU trade with Ukraine, which was introduced in 2022 in the form of war aid for Kiev. The Commission’s decision will end several weeks of arduous negotiations, because although its proposal will still have to be approved in the EU Council by a qualified majority (15 out of 27 countries covering 65% of the EU’s population) with the consent of the European Parliament, the aim was to develop a project that would pass this procedure without patches, especially the risk of blocking.

The European Commission’s draft initially approved on Monday includes, according to leaks, limits on the import of poultry, eggs and sugar from Ukraine. Their duty-free import into the EU will only be possible in quantities not exceeding the average import volume in the 12 months (“reference period”) preceding the new decision on trade liberalization. Detailed disputes over the calculation of the “reference period” may even move to Wednesday. Among others representatives of the Polish authorities, but also the EU Commissioner for Agriculture, Janusz Wojciechowski, proposed calculating the average on the basis of the three preceding years, which would result in lower duty-free quotas for Ukrainian poultry meat, eggs and sugar.

The EC will monitor the situation in individual countries

Other agricultural products, including wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower, will – according to today’s preliminary project – be covered by a different fuse. Brussels will be obliged to continuously monitor the market not only for disruptions across the entire EU (this is a standard rule in EU trade agreements), but also for disruptions in individual countries, e.g. on the agricultural market in Poland. If a given EU country requests the introduction of import restrictions in the event of major disruptions in its domestic market (or the market of just a few countries), the Commission will be able to make such a decision, although – according to today’s version of the draft – with the consent of representatives of a simple majority of EU countries (in the “procedure committee”).

The Polish demand has no chance

The negotiation demand of the Minister of Agriculture, Czesław Siekierski, was – as he wrote to the European Commission at the beginning of January – not to extend the liberalized EU trade with Ukraine, but to negotiate duty-free quotas based on the rules applicable before 2022. “The immediate and full liberalization of imports of agricultural goods from Ukraine has caused serious disruptions in the agricultural markets of some member states, in particular countries in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine. It also raised public concerns about the effects of the further process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU structures in the agricultural area,” Siekierski argued in a letter to Valdis Dombrovskis, deputy head of the European Commission. However, the demand not to extend liberalization had no chance in Brussels.

In the spring of 2023, Poland unilaterally, and therefore contrary to EU rules, blocked all agricultural imports from Ukraine, but quickly reached an agreement with the European Commission, which – also stretching EU rules – proposed restrictions on the import of Ukrainian grains to Poland in exchange for lifting the embargo. , as well as Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania. Wheat, rapeseed, corn and sunflower from Ukraine could pass through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania only in transit to other EU countries and sea ports, and then outside the EU. When the European Commission lifted this system of restrictions in mid-September 2023, Mateusz Morawiecki’s government did not comply with this decision. And these restrictions, contrary to EU rules, now also apply after the change of government in Poland. – Ukraine should be supported, but this support should not constitute a threat to the agricultural sector in the European Union – argued Siekierski a week ago during the meeting of agriculture ministers in Brussels.

Brussels turns a blind eye

The project, which the European Commission is expected to announce this week, should be in force from June this year, and therefore does not address the problems with the current illegal embargo in Poland. However, Brussels turns a blind eye to them. And it encourages – it already did so under the previous government – solutions similar to the Ukrainian-Romanian agreements, in which the grain trade licensing system protects the Romanian market in a way that deviates from standard EU rules, but is tolerated by both Brussels and Kiev. – Our experts from the Ministry of Agriculture will talk to experts from the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine and will discuss product by product. There would be licenses that would determine the volume of exports and these licenses would also specify the recipient where the goods were sent, Siekierski announced in Brussels.

EU farmers who protest in various EU countries include, among others: due to the costs of the Green Deal, are currently becoming the subject of great political interest, among others. the center-right European People’s Party (including the German Christian Democrats, PO, PSL) seeking their votes. – A simple continuation of the current ones [zasad zliberalizowanego handlu z Ukrainą – red.] is unsustainable and some safeguards need to be put in place. We urge the European Commission to propose solutions aimed at protecting the affected industries while ensuring an appropriate level of support for Ukraine,” says a letter written by, among others, Manfred Weber, head of the European People’s Party, addressed on January 26 to Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission .