Ómicron changes plans for COVID-19 in 2022

As the omicron variant gathers momentum in Europe and the United States, scientists are revising their expectations for next year’s COVID-19 pandemic.

Just a few weeks ago, disease experts predicted that countries would begin to emerge from the pandemic after enduring a series of rallies driven by alpha, beta, gamma and delta variants. First, populations with significant exposure to coronavirus would do so, through a combination of infections and vaccination.

In those places, COVID-19 was expected to become an endemic disease, with less severe periodic or seasonal outbreaks. Vaccines, available for much of 2021 only in rich countries, would reach the majority of the world’s population by the end of next year.

However, the rapid spread of the highly mutated variant omicron, identified in late November, and its apparent ability to re-infect people at a higher rate than its predecessors, is undermining that hope.

Countries are already re-taking the measures that were used in the early days of the pandemic: restricting travel, reimposing the use of masks and discouraging large gatherings during the boreal winter holidays.

Although it has not returned to the starting point, more of the world will have to be vaccinated or exposed to COVID-19 to overcome the worst of the pandemic, disease experts explained to Reuters.

“People are fed up with the pandemic and God knows I am, but unless some urgency forces our leaders to take action, I really see that 2022 will be much more of what we saw in 2021,” he said. Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist with the Vaccine and Infectious Diseases Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada.

Even after COVID-19 becomes a more endemic disease, the new variants will generate outbreaks and seasonal spikes for years to come.

“There will always be a baseline number of COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “Many people have not gotten used to the idea.”

The hope is that the virus subsides to the point that it is no longer disruptive. However, living with COVID-19 does not mean that the virus is no longer a threat.

Rather, people will have to be prepared to adapt when the next variant appears, said Dr. Tom Frieden, CEO of Resolve to Save Lives, a global public health initiative, and former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. of Diseases of the United States. “You have to recognize that at certain times it will be safer to do things than at others.”

Does the pandemic phase end in 2022?

Some scientists are not entirely ready to give up hope that some parts of the world will emerge from the pandemic next year. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 270 million people have been infected with COVID-17, while it is estimated that 57% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, representing a protection that did not exist two years ago.

“Even though that immunity isn’t that good against omicron, it doesn’t mean it’s worthless. And that immunity is more effective against serious disease than against contagion, ”said Dr. David Dowdy, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins.

Until now, most studies on the efficacy of omicron vaccines have focused on neutralizing antibodies, which stick to the virus and prevent it from entering and infecting cells. Results of blood tests from fully vaccinated people show that omicron has learned to escape neutralization; a booster dose could restore that protection.

T cells of the immune system, which destroy infected cells, also appear to remain able to recognize the variant. Many experts believe that this second line of defense will prevent hospitalizations and deaths.

“There are still a lot of people who are susceptible” because they haven’t been vaccinated yet, said Dr. Celine Gounder, an infectious disease specialist at New York University. That was one of the reasons he believes it will be some time before the world transitions from pandemic to COVID-19 endemic, he added.

Meanwhile, living with COVID in 2022 will likely mean assessing local risks and protecting yourself through vaccination, masking, and social distancing.

“When I go to the store this afternoon, what helps me is knowing how much COVID is in my community,” said Dr. Robert Wachter, chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.

“There will not be a single pandemic situation. There will be different statuses for different people and for different regions. And so it will be in the immediate future, “he declared.