Abortion debate creates “new era” in races for US state Supreme Courts

In the 2024 elections in USA The fight for the presidency and the battle for control of Congress will predominate, but there are other races that are shaping up to be just as important.

Crucial battles around abortionredrawing of congressional districts, voting rights and other issues will take center stage in next year’s elections for state supreme court seats — 80 of them in 33 states.

These races have become some of the most contested and costly since the Supreme Court of USA overturned Roe v. Wade, thereby eliminating the constitutional right to abortion. That decision moved the debate on the abortion to the statescreating a “new era” in state supreme court elections, according to Douglas Keith, senior counsel in the legal program at the Brennan Center for Justice, which tracks spending on judicial office elections.

“We have seen that the elections for the state supreme courts have received attention like never before, and that money has been invested in these races like never before“, he pointed.

The competitive court races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2023 delivered victories to Democrats, and tens of millions of dollars were spent on television ads, offering a preview of what to expect in 2024. They are also making Some groups are considering investing in states they had not previously considered.

Highlights: Abortion and redistricting

At least 38 lawsuits have been filed challenging abortion bans in 23 states, according to the Brennan Center. Many of them are expected to end up before state supreme courts.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is pending cases challenging abortion restrictions in Wyoming, Kentucky, Ohio, Utah, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Nebraska, Georgia and Montana.

“After the overturning of Roe v. Wade, we had to turn to state courts and constitutions as the crucial safeguards to protect access to abortion”said Brigitte Amiri, deputy director of the ACLU’s Reproductive Freedom Project. “And the stakes are incredibly high in each of these cases in all of these states.”.

The ACLU was one of the biggest spenders on behalf of Democrats in this year’s elections for the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania supreme courts.

Another major player in recent court races has been the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), which has stated that it is primarily focused on redrawing political districts. The group said state supreme courts are the “last line of defense against national far-left groups,” but he did not indicate how much he plans to spend on next year’s elections or which states he is focusing on.

In Ohio, Democrats are expected to advertise the elections for the Supreme Court state as an extension of the November elections, in which voters enshrined the right to abortion in the state Constitution. The state has more than 30 restrictions on abortionwhich could be challenged now that the amendment has been approved.

“The Supreme Court of the state is going to be the definitive arbiter of the meaning of the new constitutional amendment for which the people voted and around which they organized”said Jessie Hill, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University and a consultant for Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights. “It is a huge power”.

With three seats up for grabs and a current 4-3 Republican majority, Democrats have a chance to shift the balance, while Republicans will try to expand their control. Hill said this election will serve as another test of the relevance of the abortion issue in attracting voters.

“We saw an incredible number of voters turn out to vote on that amendment and an incredible amount of investment in those campaignsHill added. “I think we’ll see similar attention and investment in Ohio next year”.

The redefinition of districts will undoubtedly also be one of the main points of attention in the races for the state supreme courtgiven that it will have been politically realigned since it issued a series of rulings in which it determined that the legislative and government maps Ohio Congress They had been redefined to favor Republicans, which would be unconstitutional, noted David Niven, a political science professor at the University of Cincinnati. Niven expects millions of dollars to be spent on those campaigns.

“These elections are not often talked about much, but they are extremely consequential in very tangible and practical ways that affect the daily lives of voters.“, he claimed

Other states with important races

The pending cases of redefinition of legislative districts and the Congress could also affect North Carolina.

The Republicans of North Carolina They want to expand their majority, two years after the court lost its Democratic majority in the 2022 elections. That shift to a 5-2 Republican majority led to drastic reversals in 2023 of decisions made by the previous court, which had overturned a 2018 law on photo ID cards for voters, as well as district maps for the General Assembly and for the state delegation in the Congress.

Groups from both sides are expected to focus on Michigan, where Democrats hold a 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court. Candidates run without their political affiliations being specified on the ballots, although they have been nominated by political parties.

Two incumbents — a Democrat and a Republican — face elections in 2024. The court recently kept former President Donald Trump on the state’s ballot after rejecting a request from a liberal group to remove him. He is currently weighing a case over a Republican legislative maneuver that reduced a voter-backed minimum wage hike.

2023 races offered a preview

In Wisconsin, the abortion played a dominant role in the 2023 court elections, in which Democrats won a 4-3 majority in a campaign that broke national records for spending in state supreme court elections.

Liberal-leaning Judge Janet Protasiewicz defeated former Justice Dan Kelly, who had previously worked for Republicans and had the support of anti-abortion groups in the state.

Protasiewicz was the subject of impeachment threats this year for comments he made during the campaign about redistricting, as Republicans argued that he had prejudged what was then a foreseeable case over state legislative districts, whose boundaries were heavily gerrymandered. Experts say the controversy is an example of how the increase in money and attention has changed the dynamics of many state supreme court races, making them increasingly partisan.

Pennsylvania Democrats expanded their majority on the court after a race that cost tens of millions of dollars. Democrat Dan McCaffery won after positioning himself as a strong defender of abortion rights.

Seats up for grabs even in deeply Republican states

It remains to be seen whether abortion rights will be a factor in states where any party’s control is not at risk. That includes Arkansas, where the court is expected to maintain its conservative 4-3 majority. Among the positions to be elected next year is that of president of the Supreme Courtfor which three sitting judges have applied.

A battle over abortion could end up in court, as a group is trying to put on next year’s ballot a measure that would relax a state ban on the procedure that went into effect after the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

Supporters of abortion rights also do not rule out states where they would have a remote chance of success, such as Texas, where the Supreme Court – completely Republican – rejected the petition of a pregnant woman who asked to be exempt from the strict ban on abortion. abortion because the fetus had a lethal health problem.

In Montana, Republicans have spent enormous sums trying to have a more conservative court. The liberal-leaning court is expected to hear cases related to restrictions on transgender youth and the abortion. A landmark case on climate change is also pending in the court, of which two of its seven seats will be up for grabs in the election.

Jeremiah Lynch, a former federal judge seeking the open post of chief justice, has presented himself as a defender of the court’s independence and has warned voters of a barrage of negative propaganda. Cory Swanson, a county attorney also running for the job, announced his candidacy on a conservative talk show and recently pledged to root out any challengers.radicalized” to legal secretary in response to anti-Semitism on university campuses.

In West Virginia, where conservatives hold a 5-4 majority on the court and two seats will be up for grabs, Republican Chairwoman Elgine McArdle said Republicans intend to focus more on judicial races than in years past.

“One area where the state party has never really been involved much is nonpartisan races, including judicial racesMcArdle said. “That won’t be the case this time.”.