Mexicans and Americans will go to the polls in 2024, the first in June and the second in November, to choose their respective presidents, elections whose results can bring changes in how each of the countries approaches a migration crisis that does not stop.
In Mexico, for the first time, two women are the main candidates in a presidential election, the official Claudia Sheinbaum and the opposition Xóchitl Gálvez, while in the United States the Democratic president Joe Biden His rival is former president Donald Trump, who has revived his anti-immigrant and anti-Mexican rhetoric before the campaign officially begins.
“In those five months – between both elections – the debate is going to be at full speed. “So some decisions that the president of Mexico can make will be very important, especially from an immigration point of view,” said José María Ramos, from El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (Colef).
As an example of the relevance of the migration issue in bilateral relations, The Mexican president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, received this Wednesday a US delegation led by the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to address the migratory surge in December, when there has been an average of more than 10,000 irregular crossings on the common border.
“There is also a political issue due to this election season in the United States and migration is encouraged, misinformation is created”López Obrador acknowledged this Thursday in his morning press conference.
The Colef researcher pointed out that the definitions that Mexico has, until that moment, with President Joe Biden “They will be very important and (the winner of the Mexican election) should not wait to name his entire team, but should define an agenda based not only on the American perspective, but also on the Mexican one.”
Therefore, he stated that “the role, the intelligence of Mexican diplomacy is going to be very interesting” given the possibility of Trump’s return and the restrictive policies he proposes.
“This would affect economic growth because the indicator is conclusive: the remittances that Mexicans send from the US are in first place (of the income of foreign currency to Mexico) – close to US$ 65,000 million annually – compared to the entry of resources for tourism and oil”, Indian.
Mexico’s political dilemma vis-à-vis the US
The academic asked to observe the posture of the person who wins the elections in Mexico to see “if it is linked to Biden’s agenda, which may be going to lose, or if it is linked to a more pragmatic and very strategic agenda with the Republicans.”
Ramos recalled that, historically, “Mexico has had very acceptable negotiations with the Republicans, especially in the economic and immigration sphere, unlike the Democrats, who in this context of pressure will always defend their political-electoral bases so that investment dynamics do not go to Mexico” .
The specialist in Mexico-United States relations said that in addition to the immigration issue on the bilateral agenda there are internal politics, security, drug trafficking, energy, the environment, and the Mexico, United States and Canada Treaty (T-MEC).
Trump, anti-Mexican stance
For the specialist National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) Javier Oliva, Trump’s position “has become noticeably more anti-Mexican and this is evidently based on large, very conservative sectors of the Republican Party.”
“And if he wins it would imply a hardening of relations between both countries,” he warned.
He explained that there are other circumstances, such as the growing presence of China in Mexico’s economy and in supply chains to the United States.
“There are conditions for an important US electoral sector to assume that Mexico, in addition to being a State overwhelmed by organized crime activity, particularly drug trafficking and the sale of fentanyl to the United States, also believes that it is a economy dependent on investments from China”, considered.
Furthermore, he explained that in the United States they associate migration with drug trafficking and “They consider that those who bring drug trafficking to the United States are Mexican criminals and irregular migration of Mexicans.”
Without positioning in Mexico
The professor-researcher at the UNAM Faculty of Political and Social Sciences argued that in Mexico “Until now there have been no clear positions from the two pre-candidates”Sheinbaum and Gálvez, main contenders.
He specified that in the elections in Mexico, on June 2, and in the United States, on November 5, “Everything will depend on who wins and how they win.”
Source: Gestion
Ricardo is a renowned author and journalist, known for his exceptional writing on top-news stories. He currently works as a writer at the 247 News Agency, where he is known for his ability to deliver breaking news and insightful analysis on the most pressing issues of the day.
