Next president of Congo, key voice for copper, cobalt and green energy

The Democratic Republic of the Congoeitherwhich threatens to snatch Peru’s second place as the largest producer of copper in the world, vote this Wednesday to elect a president who will play a crucial role in the global fight against climate change over the next five years.

The Central African nation’s forests, rivers and minerals are key to the future of green development globally and Congo’s next leader will have to make urgent decisions about how they are used.

To the president Felix Tshisekedi, who is running for re-election, likes to call Congo the “’solution country’ for the climate crisis.” But it has only just begun to make progress on key environmental and energy issues.

At stake is the protection of one of the largest carbon sinks on Earth, the construction of the world’s largest hydroelectric project and the supply chain of minerals for electric vehicle batteries.

Tshisekedi’s government has signed preliminary agreements for the massive Grand Inga hydroelectric project and for carbon credit initiatives to preserve Congo’s forests. It has also tried to create a state company to market cobalt, a key mineral for batteries.

But the 60-year-old president has yet to make the big decisions that will lay the groundwork for the development of these resources in the years to come.

Companies are clamoring to invest in offsets generated by Congo’s rainforests, which capture around 822 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, almost double the UK’s annual emissions. But the government still needs to implement a new regulatory framework so that the market can really function.

Tshisekedi also complicated the initiative by launching a bidding round for oil and gas exploration permits, some of which overlap with critical ecosystems, to the horror of environmental activists.

The president has defended his decision as necessary to help lift Congolese out of poverty. His main opponent, businessman Moise Katumbi, has called for an end to oil and gas exploration in the Congo Basin, and presidential candidate and Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege is an outspoken critic of the plan.

“If there is a new president, we can expect the oil permitting process to be reviewed”said Christian-Geraud Neema Byamungu, development economist and editor of the China-Global South Project.

Tshisekedi has also been reluctant to start work on the 40,000 megawatt Grand Inga hydroelectric project. The government signed a preliminary agreement with Australia’s Fortescue Future Industries in 2020 to build the site and produce green hydrogen. But the two have not yet agreed on a common vision and Fortescue has threatened to walk away. The company did not respond to messages seeking comment.

Inga could supply energy to the entire Congo and beyond – South Africa has long promised to buy sustainable energy from the project. But competing proposals and costs that can reach tens of billions of dollars have delayed development.

Congo’s government also needs to decide what to do with its world-leading cobalt industry, which accounts for about 70% of the world’s supply. Concerns about corruption, as well as working conditions and child labor in informal mines, have prompted companies to look for other sources of the material or remove it from their batteries entirely.

About 57% of demand for EV cathodes now comes from battery chemicals containing cobalt, up from more than 70% in 2018, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Still, demand for cobalt is expected to double by 2030, says industry group Cobalt Institute. At the moment, most of that metal is processed in China, Congo’s largest trading partner by an order of magnitude.

The need for green energy minerals such as cobalt and copper has meant that “Both the US and the EU have regained interest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and are determined to counter China’s geopolitical influence in the region” according to Bryan Bille, senior policy analyst at Benchmark.

But without a plan to clean up the industry, Congo risks losing the opportunity to benefit from its near-monopoly position in cobalt. And a victory for Tshisekedi without needing to campaign for re-election could reduce his incentive to ensure that mining revenues benefit all Congolese, and not just a small elite, Neema Byamungu said.

“In a country where political parties center around the leader, where the president cannot run for a third term, will Tshisekedi have any incentive to take steps to improve governance of the mining sector or good governance in general?” I note.

Having a credible vote is a crucial first step, Jason Stearns, founder of the Congo Research Group at New York University, told Bloomberg.

“The biggest problem with governance is accountability, and this is the best and perhaps the only opportunity that citizens have to hold their government accountable.“, he claimed.

“If the country is not able to resolve its political differences through the democratic process, it could lead to significant instability.” and that stability is fundamental for international support for economic development, he stressed.