Inflation in the US moderates in November to 3.1% in 12 months, before the Fed

The inflation fell slightly in November in the United States, standing at 3.1% in the interannual period, compared to the 3.2% registered the previous month, according to the CPI index published on Tuesday by the Department of Labor.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is known before the end of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting (Fedcentral bank) on Wednesday, rose slightly in a month, 0.1%, just above analysts’ expectations.

For its part, core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – remained stable compared to October, at 4.0% in one year, although it is the lowest record in more than two years.

“It is the first time in a year that core inflation does not subside. The bad news is that underlying inflation in the services sector (which excludes rents, ed.) increased” and also that “housing is very expensive“, estimated in an analysis note the chief economist of the firm Oxford Economics, Michael Pearce.

Falling fuel prices are the main factor in the moderation of inflation in November.

In the case of food, they rose but at a slower rate, 2.9% in 12 months, and 1.7% in the case of food consumed at home. In the case of takeaway and restaurant food, the increase is much more marked (+5.3%).

On the other hand, used cars and health services also fell.

In a statement, US President Joe Biden, who is campaigning for his re-election in 2024, highlighted “continuous progress” to return inflation to a more acceptable level and “reduce the cost of living for Americans”.

During a conference in Washington, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target level established by the Fed.

Fed Prudence

Some sectors, however, have risen above average, such as housing. The same happened with transportation, with increases of more than 10% in 12 months.

He CPI In any case, it confirms the trend advanced by the other price index in the United States, the PCE, the one most followed by the Fed to determine its monetary policy. This index marked 3% for 12 months in October.

Several surveys highlight that Americans do not attribute the improvement of the economy to the president, mainly due to the impact of rising prices on family budgets despite salaries that tend to keep pace with inflation.

Faced with inflation that touched 10% in July 2022, the Fed progressively raised its interest rates since March to make credit more expensive and cool the economy, discouraging consumption and investment to lower pressures on prices.

The Fed It began its last monetary policy meeting of the year this Tuesday to determine whether or not to maintain its interest rates for the third consecutive meeting in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

The decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) will be known on Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. GMT. Most analysts expect rates to remain at their current level, according to CME FedWatch.