War in Gaza, a factor that will influence COP28 due to the “anger” of Arab countries

The war between the Islamist group Hamas and Israel will be able to directly influence the climate negotiations at the COP28 Climate Summit due to the “anger” of the Arab countries at what is happening in Gaza. A conflict that is added to that of Sudan and Ukraine, and that could change the course of the discussions of some crucial issues in Dubai.

“I do not think that the general objectives of COP28 at a global level will be greatly affected by the war in Gaza in particular, but by everyone. From Ukraine to Sudan, passing through Gaza, they will influence the official negotiations. Without forgetting the position of the majority of the Arab participants in COP28 and their anger at what is happening now in Gaza, which will also be reflected in the daily negotiations“Marc Ayoub, an energy expert in the Middle East and analyst at The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (TIMEP), told EFE.

The conflict in Gaza could overshadow part of COP28, which begins on November 30 and will extend until December 12, as happened with the issue of the Russian invasion of Ukraine at COP27 (Egypt), which turned some postures and created new scenarios.

October 7: A before and after…also in energy

On October 7, when Hamas launched the brutal attack against Israeli territory that triggered the siege and indiscriminate bombings of the Jewish State against Gaza, it also marked a before and after for the energy scene, especially in the Middle East region where that Israel is a very important actor.

“Se will carefully study any collaboration or cooperation agreement between any Arab country – those that are at least officially normalizing – with Israel at COP28 as long as atrocities continue daily”Assured Ayoub, also an expert at the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut.

“Any cooperation will be of no significant value in the current circumstances, although Israel will try to reflect the idea that ‘business as usual’“said the expert.

That slogan could also be raised by Arab countries that have normalized diplomatic relations with Israel, such as the United Arab Emirates or Bahrain, with the 2020 Abraham Accords.

In fact, Dubai It was going to be a perfect showcase for Israel to raise that flag of union with the Arab countries and the potential ones that could follow, such as Saudi Arabia, although it is expected that they will ultimately keep a low profile.

For example, him Jordanian government -which has a peace agreement with Israel- has already made it clear that it will not sign an agreement with Israel to exchange solar energy for desalinated water due to the war in Gaza; and at this COP, unlike last year, it seems that they will not sit together.

“The power-for-water deal should have been closed in October and the fact that it is not on the table is an indication in itself of how fragile current relations are,” Ayoub noted.

A COP for the most vulnerable

The expert recalled that the main debates that will take place at this summit will be the launch of the Fund to Fight Climate Change for the effects now borne by the most vulnerable countries, called Loss and Damage, as well as the Global Balance Sheet, the first of the Paris Agreement.

“I believe that the role of vulnerable communities, and especially those in crisis or conflict-affected areas, will occupy a large part of the discussions to truly alleviate the burdens they currently face.”, he indicated.

Regarding conflicts, Noam Raydan, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy specialized in energy, told EFE that the war between Israel and Hamas, “which has disrupted gas supplies, could force Israel to increase its use of more polluting fossil fuels, such as coal, to generate electricity”.

In the event that the conflict expands to other fronts, and “If Israel were forced to suspend production in the Leviathan (gas field…) bilateral energy agreements could be affected, as no gas volumes will be sent to Jordan and Egypt. But alternatives to Israeli gas are not easy options for Egypt and Jordan“, said.

Raydan also highlighted that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, the energy landscape has changed, “forcing the European Union (EU) to increase gas imports from sources other than Russia.”

Among them, one of the sources that has made agreements in recent months with EU companies is Qatar, the main mediator in the war between Hamas and Israel.