Businessman Daniel Noboa takes office as the youngest president of Ecuador

The millionaire businessman Daniel Noboa will take office this Thursday before the Congress of Ecuador as the youngest president in the history of a country shaken by the violence of the drug trafficking and the political instability.

Self-proclaimed center-left and supported by right-wing forces, the son of banana magnate Álvaro Noboa came to power at the age of 35 to govern for a short and unusual period of 18 months.

The new president will take office at the Legislative headquarters in Quito, in an event scheduled for 11:00 a.m. local time (4:00 p.m. GMT) and which will only be attended by one ruler, Gustavo Petrofrom Colombia, after Luis Arce, from Bolivia, canceled his visit.

Noboa was elected to finish the unfinished term of the outgoing right-wing Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved Congress in May and gave way to early elections to avoid a political trial for corruption, promoted by opposition deputies who formed the majority.

Added to the institutional crisis is the violence of drug gangs with international power, resulting in some 3,600 murders so far this year, according to the Ecuadorian Observatory of the Organized crime.

With little political experience and little support in Parliament, Noboa will be “structurally a weak government” like that of his predecessors, including that of Lenín Moreno (2017-2021), said political scientist Santiago Cahuasquí, from the SEK International University.

“It must assume that it is a transitional government (…) and therefore it must be highly pragmatic and realistic regarding its capabilities and objectives that will be set so that it does not generate frustration for Ecuadorians again”he added

Noboa anticipated that once he assumes the presidential office he will decree a state of emergency, a measure that allows him to use funds intended for other purposes, suspend some citizen rights such as freedom of movement and mobilize soldiers to the streets.

Born in the United States and graduated from prestigious foreign universities, the new president is a sommelier, knows music, tried to be a vegetarian, collects chili peppers and is passionate about cars and horses, according to his press team.

His father tried unsuccessfully to become president five times.

Fragmentation and volatility

Noboa defeated the leftist Luisa González, dolphin of the former socialist ruler, in a runoff on October 15. Rafael Correa (2007-2017) with 52% of the support.

But the new president’s movement – National Democratic Action (ADN) – won only 17 of the 137 parliamentary seats.

On Friday, Noboa allied himself with Correismo (the main force with 51 seats and a strong critic of his father) and the right-wing Social Christian Party (PSC, 18) to create a majority when it came to appointing authorities such as president and two vice presidents of Congress. .

“The forces are fragmented and there is volatility,” Cahuasquí emphasized.

The inauguration ceremonies will also be attended by the vice presidents of Brazil, Geraldo Alckmin, and of Honduras, Renato Florentino Pineda, and the foreign ministers of Panama, Haiti, Peru and Costa Rica, according to the local Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The businessman has a popularity of 60% according to the private pollster Cedatos, despite the fact that he was almost unknown in politics prior to the elections.

Your main challenge will be to confront the numerous gangs associated with Mexican and Colombian cartels that impose terror with dismembered, incinerated corpses and hanging from bridges.

Between 2018 and 2022, the homicide rate quadrupled and rose to 26 murders per 100,000 inhabitants.

You will also receive a prison system on fire, with prisons transformed into battlefields where clashes between organizations leave more than 460 dead since 2021.

Pre-campaign

For Ecuadorians, the main problems are insecurity (45%), unemployment (18%), poverty (15%) and corruption (6%), according to Cedatos.

The impact of the climate phenomenon The boy threatens to further hit the oil-dependent economy, which has unstable prices.

“It receives a country in a fairly complex economic situation, but it is not the first time that in Ecuador transitions occur in complex conditions,” explained analyst Pablo Lucio-Paredes, director of the Institute of Economics at the private Universidad San Francisco de Quito.

By 2024, an election year in Ecuador, there will be a budget deficit of 5,000 million dollars (4% of GDP) and a financing need of 10,000 million (8%), according to the expert.

Of the population of 16.9 million people, 3.1 million are employed, while poverty – including extreme poverty – affects 38%, according to official figures.

Noboa must define whether to reduce expenses, increase income with more taxes or obtain external financing when public debt represents almost 40% of GDP (US$ 47,545 million).

Experts consider that this mandate will be a kind of pre-campaign with a view to the February 2025 elections, in which Noboa aspires to participate.