Migrants on the Belarusian-Polish border; a frozen crisis

More than a month after the outbreak of the migration crisis On the Belarusian-Polish border, many undocumented migrants still remain in Belarus waiting to enter the European Union (EU).

“The active phase of the crisis has been overcome, but the reasons why it arose have not disappeared”, explains in a conversation with EFE Román Pavlyuchenko, director of the Belarusian portal “Reformatsia”, 35 days after the arrival of the migrants to the border with the EU.

EU measures and winter freeze the crisis

According to the expert, the measures adopted by Brussels to reduce the channels through which migrants were transferred to Belarus helped to lower the level of tension at the border.

“Air traffic channels from Iraq and Syria were practically blocked. It is the main reason for the current de-escalation and the other is the arrival of winter, ”says Pavlyuchenko.

And it is that in recent days Belarus is experiencing a cold wave with up to 12 degrees below I think.

“The Belarusian authorities understand that now pursuing a policy that encourages illegal border crossing (with the EU) can leave many victims,” ​​he says.

“Hundreds of people can simply freeze to death in the forests,” he warned.

However, the future of the migrants who still remain in Belarus remains uncertain.

More than a thousand still on the border

As of mid-November, Minsk reported about 7,000 undocumented migrants on the country’s territory, of which about 2,000 were in the Bruzgui industrial warehouse, near the Polish border.

According to Pavlyuchenko, some of the migrants have since been able to enter the EU and more than 3,000 have been repatriated to Iraq.

The Iraqi foreign spokesman, Ahmed al Sahaf, confirmed to Efe that his government has managed to bring back more than 3,550 who were blocked in Belarus on nine chartered flights.

He added that the last flight arrived two days ago and that the Ministry will continue “efforts for the voluntary return” of the migrants.

Currently in the center of Bruzgui there are still about 1,000 people, including about 150 children, the Belarus Red Cross told EFE.

NGO employees and activists approach the industrial warehouse twice a day to bring food and essential items to the migrants.

This Saturday, some of the tenants of the shelter organized a rally in which they were determined to stay in the shelter to be able to cross into the EU at some point.

According to some testimonies collected by the state agency Belta, there are those who do not want to return to Iraq because they have sold all their properties to be able to pay for the trip to Belarus and from there, to the EU.

Minsk convinced of support for Moscow

The main support of Belarus in its new confrontation with the West over the crisis on the border is Moscow.

After the announcement of a new round of sanctions against Minsk on December 2, the authorities of the Slavic country assured that they will be able to resist “any pressure” thanks to the support of Russia.

At the same time, the supporter of the government of Alexandr Lukashenko is now interested in prolonging the crisis over time, according to Pavlyuchenko.

“The Kremlin would like a situation where Lukashenko has been weakened to the maximum, but is still in power,” he says.

No short-term solution

Meanwhile, Lukashenko himself continues to press the EU for Brussels to once again consider him a legitimate interlocutor despite not recognizing the August 2020 elections and lifting the sanctions imposed on the country.

So far none of these objectives have been achieved, except for talks with Moscow mediation that Lukashenko held with former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

“The objectives (of Lukashenko) have not been achieved so I do not rule out a new escalation (of the crisis with migrants), in spring,” warned the expert.