APEC Forum: Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will discuss Taiwan, Gaza and Ukraine

Wednesday’s meeting between the American president, Joe Bidenand its Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinpingwill be choreographed to the millimeter: it will begin with a greeting designed to impregnate the atmosphere with positivity and, then, behind closed doors, thorny issues such as Taiwan, Loop and Ukraine.

This face to face will take place in the San Francisco Bay, within the framework of the high-level week of the Forum Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and in a location that the White House has not yet specified for security reasons.

This is the second bilateral meeting between the leaders of the world’s largest economies since Biden arrived at the White House in January 2021. The first, which lasted more than three hours, was in November of last year on the margins of the G20 in Bali (Indonesia).

Although no big announcements are expected, these will be the main topics:

Elections in Taiwan

Taiwan, the self-governed island with a democratic system that China claimed as part of its territory and to which Washington sends a large amount of weapons, is the main source of tensions between the two powers and will occupy a prominent place in their discussion, especially due to the January elections.

Senior US officials announced that Biden will take the opportunity to inform Xi that Washington is closely monitoring any attempt by Beijing to influence these elections and tip the balance in favor of the candidate of the conservative Kuomintang party, Hou Yu-ih, who is closer to Beijing.

In these elections, the Taiwanese vice president, William Lai, who belongs to the Democratic Progressive Party, the political force of the current president, Tsai Ing-wen, is the favorite, under which relations with Beijing have been further strained.

For his part, Xi will want to hear from Biden the same promise that the US will not intervene in the elections and the commitment that Washington will never support a unilateral change of the “status quo” with a declaration of independence from Taipei.

China’s role in the Middle East

Another priority issue will be the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.

Biden plans to ask Xi to use his influence over Iran to prevent violence from spreading throughout the Middle East, especially given the constant exchange of fire between Israel and militants in Lebanon from the Shiite group Hezbollah, supported by Tehran.

For his part, Xi could welcome any collaboration in this regard since it is not in China’s interest for the conflict to expand and generate an increase in the price of oil worldwide, which could negatively impact the Chinese economy, said Rick Waters. , who until June of this year was in charge of China in the US State Department.

The war in Ukraine

While both leaders could reach a rapprochement in the Middle East, it is less likely that they will do so in the war in Ukraine, since Washington has repeatedly asked Beijing to exert its influence on Russia and the Asian giant has maintained a neutral facade with proposals of peace that, however, favor Moscow.

A specific issue that Biden will address with Xi will be the shipment of weapons from North Korea, an ally of China, to Russia for use in the war in ukraineindicated senior US officials.

Fentanyl

Beyond the geopolitical challenges, a key priority for Biden is to get China to take measures to control the departure from its territory of chemicals used in the manufacture of fentanyl, a powerful painkiller.

According to Washington, Mexican cartels use these chemicals from China to produce fentanyl and sell it illegally in USAcausing the death of 200 people a day from an overdose of that substance.

Climate change, flights and communication at the military level

Another issue where there could be progress is the fight against climate change, of interest to both powers.

There could also be movement to increase flights between the two countries and increase university and business exchanges, said Amy Celico, who was Asia lead in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative from 2006 to 2007.

In addition, Biden wants to reopen the communication channel between the armed forces of both countries, which Beijing closed after the controversial visit to Taiwan in August 2022 of the then president of the US House of Representatives. Nancy Pelosi.

Trade and sanctions

Faced with rapprochement in these areas, tension will remain high in trade matters since, in recent months, both countries have intensified trade restrictions in the name of national security.

In October, the United States increased limitations on exports to China of semiconductors and technology for the development of artificial intelligence, to which Beijing reacted with controls on the export of graphite, crucial for electric vehicle batteries.

Xi could try to pressure Biden to soften or remove some US sanctions on Chinese citizens and companies, but it is unlikely that there will be an announcement coinciding with the meeting.