Geopolitical labyrinth to try to solve the hostage case, vital for Israel

The issue of the release of the more than 200 hostages kidnapped by Hamas in Loop has intensified a discreet and multi-band diplomacy, in which Israel’s allies negotiate directly or indirectly with some of its partners, who in some cases are enemies of the Jewish state and at the same time supporters of the armed Islamist group, in a kind of geopolitical chaos with repercussions for the future of the region.

The issue of those hostages who remain in the hands of the Palestinian Islamist group since last day 7, when it carried out the terrorist attack against Israel, which also caused 1,400 deaths, is a central issue not only on the agenda of the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the high military commanders, but also in the foreign ministries of a good number of countries that, in one way or another, are involved in this conflict and are trying to prevent it from expanding uncontrollably by all means.

Enter Gaza at any price or negotiate the release of the hostages

Everything seems to indicate that the Israeli Army is going to enter Gaza, as Netanyahu confirmed last night in a televised speech in which, however, he was very careful not to specify when and what this intervention would be like.

Entering Gaza with everything, without thinking about the fate of the kidnapped, is a possibility that seems to be gradually moving away from the action plans that both the Israeli Government and the Israeli Army must be creating. And this for an obvious reason: the fate of the hostages would be cast if the soldiers entered the Strip without knowing where they are or, at least, without being clear about where they could be.

The most obvious diplomatic scenario: The support of Israel’s allies

Since October 7, Israel has received explicit support from countries such as the United States, its great geopolitical ally, the United Kingdom, and many of the members of the European Union (EU), including France, whose president, Emmanuel Macron. , traveled to Jerusalem on Tuesday and met with Netanyahu.

During his visit to Israel, Macron raised the idea that the international coalition against the Islamic State (IS) also incorporate Hamas among its objectives and with the same level of danger and equal dedication in the strategy to combat it.

The final consequence of this massive and multinational combat would be that the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) returned to control the Strip from which it was expelled by Hamas in 2007 and that this control would be endorsed by countries such as the United States, several Europeans, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, among others.

Definitely, “I think everyone who has a political or strategic interest in stability and also in the Palestinians themselves would look for a suitable regime or type of regime to maintain control of Gaza”according to what Israeli researcher Uzi Arad, a member of the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security Studies, told EFE.

In the opinion of Michael Milstein, from the Center for African and Middle Eastern Studies, also in statements to EFE, the future post-war scenario “It will be based on a new political order that will include local leadership supported by Arab and international actors instead of Hamas. I am not sure that it is a very stable order, but it is the best of all the bad alternatives that are presented to Israel..

The most convoluted scenario: when the friend of my enemy can be my friend

Qatar and Iran are the main supporters and maintainers of Hamas. The first in the financial and even tacitly institutional sphere, given that the leader of the Islamist group, Ismail Haniye, resides temporarily or permanently in the emirate. The second is because he considers the Palestinian group the southern arm of his pincer against Israel, a role that corresponds to the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah in the north.

Qatar and Iran maintain good relations, financial and energy-related, which raises suspicion among the rest of the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, especially Saudi Arabia, which has been moving closer to Israel in recent years and which sees how the Qataris are They escape its almost absolute influence.

But at the same time, Qatar is a good partner of the United States and France, close allies of Israel, and who at the same time defend the two-state solution to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

As an Israeli diplomatic source told EFE, “Iran is the root of evil and all terrorism here. “We have sent messages to the effect that if any country or organization (supported by Tehran) attacks Israel, it will pay dearly.”

In any case, and at the medium-term geostrategic level, the fundamental idea that a good number of international actors have about this conflict is that it does not spill over or involve third parties.

As Milstein points out, “Hezbollah is not eager to join a broader conflict, basically because of its fear of the Israeli response and criticism of its own scenario in Lebanon,” although he recognizes that “The main danger is an unplanned escalation that can occur quickly and channel both sides into a broad confrontation.”