Antarctic melting: irreversible but less serious, limiting warming

He thaw of the Antarctica West, and the consequent rise in sea level that it will bring, is already “inevitable”but a study indicates that by keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees, this process would occur less quickly and coastal communities would have up to 50 years to adapt.

A study by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) published this Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change underlines that the melting of the western layer of Antarctica and the consequent rise in sea level that it would cause globally is no longer a matter of “Yeah”but of “how quickly.”

The authors, Kaitlin Naughten, Paul Holland and Jan De Rydt, used the UK’s national supercomputer to run simulations of melting scenarios in West Antarctica to see how much is inevitable and has no choice but to adapt, and how much can be avoided by reduction of greenhouse gases.

Their results indicate that even in the best case scenario, with an increase in global temperature of only 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, melting will increase three times faster than during the 20th century and will imply a rise in the level of the five meter sea level globally, which will affect millions of people living near the coast around the world.

All scenarios based on the two increases in global temperature contemplated in the Paris Agreement (1.5 and 2 degrees) would cause, as the authors have seen, a significant and widespread warming of the Amundsen Sea and the consequent melting of the layers of West Antarctic ice throughout the 21st century.

The difference is time, since total melting could be achieved in 50 years in the best scenario (1.5 ºC) and in 20 years (in the case of 2 ºC).

Western Antarctic melting will not only accelerate sea level rise, but will also alter the main ocean currents that regulate the global climate and will have a negative impact on East Antarctica, where almost the 90% of the ice of this continent.

“Our data indicates that we have lost control of the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. “To have preserved it in a situation similar to what it was decades ago, we would have had to act on climate change much earlier,” says lead author Kaitlin Naughten, in a statement from BAS, where she works as a researcher.

Naughten adds that the positive thing is that “By being able to predict this situation in advance, the world will have more time to adapt to the coming sea level rise.”

“If a coastal region has to be abandoned or substantially transformed, having 50 years in advance to adapt is important”he points out.

This study presents predictions “sobering”indicates the expert in a press conference, but “does not undermine the importance of reducing emissions to prevent the effects of climate change” are even greater.

Naughten points out that “We must continue working to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, since what we do now will contribute to slowing the rate of sea level rise in the long term.”

“The slower sea level rises, the easier it will be for governments and society to adapt to it, even if it cannot be stopped”he concludes.