Omicron is four times more transmittable than delta in Japanese study

The omicron variant of COVID-19 is 4.2 times more transmissible in its early stage than its delta predecessor, according to a study by a Japanese scientist advising the country’s Ministry of Health, a finding that likely confirms fears about the spread of COVID-19. new variant.

Hiroshi Nishiura, a professor of environmental and health sciences at the University of Kyoto who specializes in mathematical models of infectious diseases, analyzed genomic data available as of November 26 on South Africans in Gauteng province.

“The omicron variant is more contagious and escapes the immunity generated naturally and through vaccines.“Nishiura said in his conclusions, which were presented on Wednesday at a meeting of the advisory panel of the Ministry of Health.

There is global concern that omicron could impact the world even more than the delta variant, and the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that it could cause waves of cases with “serious consequences”.

However, the increase in the numbers of infections in South Africa after the appearance of the variant has not yet overwhelmed hospitals, which has generated some optimism that it is possible that it only causes mostly mild pictures of the disease. Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE also noted this week that a booster dose of their vaccine could strengthen protection against the variant.

Nishiura’s study has not been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal. The new analysis was performed using the same method used for a July study published by the medical journal Eurosurveillance on the expected prevalence of the delta variant before the Tokyo Olympics.

Hundreds of researchers around the world are trying to better understand the new variant, which is the most differentiated yet among the five variants of concern identified by the WHO since the pandemic began.

Cases in South Africa have risen rapidly to nearly 20,000 a day since the country first reported the omicron find two weeks ago. The number of covid cases in the country had remained low in the previous weeks, despite the fact that only 26% of the population had completed their vaccination schedule, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker tracking system.

“The vaccination rate was less than 30% and many people probably got it naturallyNishiura said. “We must pay close attention to future trends to see if the same will happen in countries where mRNA vaccines are used at a high rate”.