Campaigns bombingslike the one now hitting Gaza are usually the immediate previous step, clearing the ground, for a ground raid. This was seen, for the last time, in the bloody summer of 2014, when Israel launched several operations to enter – by sea, land and air – the Strip. The declared objective then was to end the tunnels clandestine of Hamas that crossed into Israeli territory and with the Palestinian barracks, arsenals, commanders and militiamen that they found. That would also be today, analysts say, the realistic objective of the operation.

“It is evident that if Israel wants to put an end to Hamas – not definitively, because Hamas will not die, but it can eradicate it for 10 or 15 years – has toenter Gaza. He has no other choice. But it will be very hard because they are waiting for you: Hamas wants them to enter Gaza“Hamas wants to expand the war,” explains specialized analyst Ignacio Cembrero for Al Rojo Vivo.

In fact, other experts explain that the Palestinian offensive sought above all stop Saudi Arabia from recognizing the State of Israel; an agreement that was very close and would have left them very orphans of allies (other Arab countries like Kuwait would have followed). “Netanyahu has fallen into that Hamas trap”adds Blas Moreno, from ‘The World Order’.

Specialists also emphasize that Israel would now have another objective, a desideratum less realistic: May Gaza be emptied. The plan, its ideal, would be for the besieged Palestinians to leave – through humanitarian corridors – never to return. Something that, according to all specialists, is not going to happen.

In any case, this operation will be higher than that of 2014: a greater number of tanks, weapons and more than 300,000 troops already. We will see, say those who know, armed Israelis patrolling and attacking in Palestinian territory. But not in Gaza City, nor, beyond grandiose statements, a occupationthey explain.

Pedro Rodriguez, university professor of International Relationspoints out that “really we talk about missions, raids, notoccupation; because it’s a stage impossible materialize even for Israel’s armed forces.” “The other times that Israel has made incursions, it has not gone well,” adds Eduardo Saldaña (EOM) in Al Rojo Vivo. And it has tried it in at least half a dozen military operations with raids during the last 20 years.

The difficulty of occupying – and keeping occupied, subdued – Gaza lies in the fact that, to begin with, its nerve center, Gaza City, has difficult terrain for tanks. To continue, the entire Palestinian territory is full of traps and, to top it all off, Hamas are very intermingled with the civilian population, a great ‘human shield’, and subduing them would entail “enormous collateral damage that would undermine any Israeli legitimacy“, according to Félix Arteaga, from the Elcano Royal Institute.

It already happened in 2014, when the Israeli Defense Forces found themselves bogged down and they ended up retiring, also designated by the UN for war crimes. That ended with more than 2,000 Palestinians killed, 80% civiliansfor 71 fallen Israeli troops.