The price of oil has not stopped increasing since the war in Ukraine began. Gasoline and diesel They have been two of the products that have triggered inflation the mostcausing the cost of travel to be noticeably more expensive from the beginning of 2022.

Now, with the opening of a new international conflict between Israel and Hamas, the possible alliances and tensions of both sides could have effects again in the price of fuel.

If the conflict does not spread, the price will not skyrocket

For the moment, the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas has boosted the price of oil, has weighed down the stock markets and has given priority to assets considered safe – such as the dollar, gold or the debt of the most solvent countries – although, According to analysts, its effects They are being moderate.

Last Monday, Brent, the benchmark crude oil in Europe, rose 3.6% and approached $88 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark in the US, rose 3.8%. and it was close to 86 dollars.

Natural gas rose 18% in the TTF market of the Netherlands, a reference in Europe, and was trading above 43 euros per megawatt hour. However, according to analysts, in the evolution of the gas market The possible leak detected in a gas pipeline also influences submarine linking Finland and Estonia.

Iran’s possible entry into the conflict, the biggest risk

According to Benjamin Melman, of the manager Edmond de Rothschild AM, the market reaction to the outbreak of violence in the Middle East is being “quite contained” because the countries involved at this time have a “limited impact on the economic scene.” In his opinion, “the main threat is a war between Iran and Israel,” that would have “far-reaching repercussions.”

Melman recalls that Iran is one of the main oil and gas producers in the world and, furthermore, “has the capacity to block the Strait of Hormuzas it has done in the past, and can easily destroy neighboring oil fields.”

Banca March analysts agree that “the main risk is that the conflict could spread throughout the region, especially to Iran, which is suspected of having collaborated in planning the attack.” “Iran extracts around 3.5 million barrels a day, just over 3% of global production“, point out the same experts. However, the report agrees that “the conflict does not seem to particularly affect the stock markets or bonds either.”

The war, which broke out last Saturday, has canceled the plans of diplomats in the Middle East, just at a time when Israel and Saudi Arabia were planning to normalize their ties, and months after Riyadh resumed ties with its regional rival Iran, one of Hamas’s supporters. Tehran has welcomed the Hamas attacks but has denied being behind them. For its part, the United States has warned Iran.

Russia and Saudi Arabia discuss cooperation within OPEC+

This same Wednesday, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world’s two main oil exporters, They held a meeting to discuss the issue of crude oil and prices amid the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak met with Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman. ahead of the “Russian Energy Week” conference in Moscowwhich Putin will address, to talk about the oil market and cooperation within the group of oil producers OPEC+.

“Of course, (cooperation within OPEC+) was (considered) in our internal meeting, one of the most important topics we discussed today“Novak said, according to the Interfax news agency. “We are in constant contact and took this opportunity in our meeting to discuss the market situation,” Novak said. However, neither of the powers made their conversations public, so It is unknown what specific conclusions they reached.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have coordinated supply cuts in recent years to support oil prices.