Israel-Palestine war tests China’s real weight in the Middle East

China This year, she achieved unprecedented success both as a diplomat and as a mediator in the diplomatic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, an achievement that now leads to the question of whether the Asian giant could play a useful role in stopping the serious situation in Israel and Palestine.

For observers, the will to China to multiply its influence in the Middle East taking advantage of the progressive withdrawal of the United States from the region is obvious. But despite the successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, some consider that the Asian giant’s weight in that area is less than it seems.

“Could China play a constructive role? The short answer is that it is unlikely“, he thinks Rudolf Moritzof the Paul Tsai China Centerfor whom it can be expectedsome kind of peace proposal“, although Beijing ““may have neither the tools nor the political will to play an important role.”

The analyst maintains that if the situation continues to worsen, it will represent a challenge to China’s geopolitical objectives in the Middle East and a “blow of reality” for its diplomatic ambitions and to become an influential actor in the region.

Neither did the director of the Chinese Policy Observatory, Xulio Riosis betting on a stellar performance by China in this crisis: “He will monitor the situation as closely as he can but he can hardly play a leading role in this war by urging successful mediation.“, he tells EFE.

China’s first reaction after the unexpected attacks of Hamas on Israeli territory in recent days was a statement from its Foreign Ministry in which it showed its “deep concern” for the new war, asked the parties to ““immediate end of hostilities” and maintained that “the prolonged stagnation of the peace process is unsustainable”.

He also again defended the establishment of Palestine as an independent state as “fundamental exit route” for the conflict, the solution of the “two states” which Beijing has historically advocated along with the full integration of the Muslim country into the United Nations and the establishment of its capital in East Jerusalem.

Moritz believes it would be “a surprise“for China to adopt a position that moves away from those postulates and ventures that it would be “less surprising” for it to propose “some kind of abstract, multi-point plan for a ceasefire”.

At the same time, Rivers predicts that Beijing “will interpret the crisis as another example of the inability of traditional actors with a mark in the area to guarantee peace and security”.

And in the face of the criticized lukewarmness and ambiguity that China has shown in relation to the war in Ukraine, the Asian giant has maintained a high profile for years when it comes to addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and good political and especially economic relations. with the two actors in the crisis.

The Asian countryis on the side of justice” forks “friend of both Palestine and Israel”, stressed this Monday a Foreign Affairs spokesperson.

Between 2006 and 2021, China has held four forums on peace between Israelis and Palestinians and presented at least six plans, the last one in June of this year during an official visit by the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas and all with the way of the “two states” as a common denominator.

The Palestinian leader’s visit occurred just two months after the then Chinese Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, showed his country’s willingness to act as a facilitator of eventual peace talks between Israel and Palestine.

He did so during telephone conversations with his counterparts from both states, Eli Cohen and Riyad Al-Maliki, to whom he already expressed China’s concern about the increase in tensions between their respective states.

Now, with the prospect of peace talks further away than ever, Xulio Ríos concludes that it is foreseeable that China “intensify collateral diplomacy with respect to other actors with influence in the conflict to show its commitment to the region, make its position more visible and explore, perhaps, the viability of some type of truce that, for the moment, does not seem easy”.