Food prices continue to rise under the pressure of climate change

How do you prepare food when a basic ingredient is too expensive? This question is being asked in homes around the world in the face of shortages of basic foods such as rice, oil kitchen and onions. That’s because some countries have introduced restrictions on the food they export to protect their own supplies from the combined effect of the war in Ukraine, the threat of El Niño phenomenon to the production of food and the increasing damage caused by the climate change.

For Caroline Kyalo, 28, who works in a beauty salon in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, the question is finding a way to cook for her two children without onions. Restrictions on the export of that vegetable in neighboring Tanzania have multiplied prices by three. She initially tried using spring onions, but they also became too expensive. The same thing happened with other staples such as cooking oil and corn flour.

“I decided to cook once a day,” he said.

Despite the East African country’s fertile lands and large workforce, the high cost of growing and transporting food and the worst drought in decades have reduced local production. Additionally, people preferred Tanzanian red onions because they were cheaper and lasted longer. By 2014, Kenya received half of its onions from its neighboring country, according to a report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

At Nairobi’s main food market, Wakulima, prices for Tanzanian onions are at a seven-year high, said shopkeeper Timothy Kinyua.

Some shopkeepers have adapted by buying Ethiopian products and others have chosen to sell other vegetables, but Kinyua continues with onions.

“It’s something we can’t cook without,” said.

The onion export quota introduced this year in Tanzania is part of the “contagion” of restrictions imposed in countries scared by the lack of supply and the increase in demand for their crops, explained Joseph Glauber, a veteran researcher at the International Research Institute. of Food Policy.

Worldwide, there are 19 countries with 41 restrictions on food exports, ranging from outright bans to taxes, according to the institute.

India banned shipments of some varieties of rice this year, taking about a fifth of global exports off the market. Neighboring Myanmar, the world’s fifth-largest rice producer, responded by halting some exports of the grain.

India also restricted onion shipments after erratic rains — a phenomenon associated with climate change — caused crop damage. That sent prices skyrocketing in neighboring Bangladesh, and authorities are having trouble finding new sources of the vegetable.

Meanwhile, a drought in Spain affected olive oil production. As European buyers flocked to Turkey, olive oil prices soared in the Mediterranean country, prompting local authorities to restrict exports. Morocco, which was also dealing with a drought before a deadly earthquake this month, stopped exporting onions, potatoes and tomatoes in February.

This is not the first time there has been a stir over food prices. The cost of staple foods like rice and wheat more than doubled in 2007 and 2008, but the world had plenty of reserves to draw on and was able to replenish them in the years since.

However, that margin has narrowed in the past two years and the impact of climate change means food supplies could quickly be overwhelmed by demand and price spikes, said Glauber, former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. .

“I think that greater volatility is the new normal,” he pointed.

Experts believe that food prices around the world will depend on the interaction of three factors: how the El Niño phenomenon develops and how long it lasts, whether bad weather damages crops and causes more export restrictions, and the Evolution of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The two warring countries are major global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other foods, especially to developing countries where food prices have risen and people are hungry.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that varies the planet’s weather patterns and can cause extreme events, such as droughts and floods. Although scientists believe that climate change is making this edition of El Niño stronger, it is impossible to predict its exact impact on food production in advance.

The first signs are worrying

India suffered its driest August in a century, and Thailand faces a drought that has stoked fears about global sugar supplies. The two are the largest exporters of sugar after Brazil.

That weaker rain in India also dashed exporters’ hopes that the new rice crop in October would lift trade restrictions and stabilize prices.

“It doesn’t seem like (rice) prices are going to drop anytime soon”said Aman Julka, Director, Wesderby India Private Limited.

The most vulnerable are countries that depend heavily on imported food. The Philippines, for example, imports 14% of their food, according to the World Bank, and storm damage to their crops may increase their need. Rice became more expensive 8.7% in August compared to the previous year, more than double the 4.2% of July.

Grocery store owners in the capital Manila are losing money. Prices have risen rapidly since September 1 and customers who previously bought in bulk are now taking less.

“We can’t save money anymore. It’s like we only work to be able to have food every day.”said Charina Em, 32 years old and who has a position in the labor market.

Cynthia Esguerra, 66, has had to choose between food or medication for her problems with high cholesterol, gall stones and urinary complications. Even so, she can only buy half a kilo of rice at a time, which is not enough for her and her husband.

“I just don’t worry about my illness. She left it to God. I don’t buy medicines anymore. “I just spend it buying food”said.

Climate risks affect not just rice, but anything that requires stable rainfall to grow, such as livestock, said Elyssa Kaur Ludher, a food security researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Vegetables, fruit trees and chickens are exposed to heat stroke, which increases the risk of food spoilage, she explained.

This further limits food supplies, and if Ukrainian exports do not resume there will be further shortages of livestock feed and fertilizer, Ludher said.

Russia withdrew in July from a war deal that guaranteed ships could safely transport Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea. That was a blow to global food security, since it practically only left the expensive and divisive European routes to transport the war-torn country’s exports.

The conflict has also hurt Ukraine’s agricultural production, with analysts saying farmers are not planting as much corn and wheat as in previous years.

“This will affect those who already suffer difficulties in acquiring food,” Ludher said.

Source: AP