Argentina foresees an increase of 70% in the 2023-24 agricultural campaign after the drought

The first projections of the 2023-24 campaign, after the drought that reduced the agricultural production from the previous year, is to increase by 70% year-on-year, reaching a volume of 136.3 million tons of harvest of grains, according to estimates from the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR).

“After the catastrophic 2022-23 campaign, in which Argentine grain production suffered a severe cut as a result of the drought”a BCR report expects that net exports for the 2023-24 cycle, at current prices, will leave a foreign exchange income of US$34.3 billion.

Agribusiness is the main source of export income for Argentina, a country that registers a critical level of monetary reserves, while being one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of grains and derivatives, key in the context of the war in Ukraine.

The BCR expects a production of 47.8 million tons of soybeans, 56 million tons of corn, 15.6 million tons of wheat, 4.2 million tons of sunflower, 5, for the 2023-24 campaign in Argentina. 4 million tons of barley, 2.4 million tons of sorghum and 4.9 million tons of other grains (cotton, canary seed, rice, oats, safflower, rye, rapeseed, flax, peanuts, millet and durum wheat).

In addition, remember that for winter crops – wheat, barley – the lack of precipitation last June has had a ““negative impact on the planted area”while for summer crops – corn, soybeans, sunflower, sorghum – it foresees a “still uncertain scenario”but with a “new strengthening of the ‘El Niño’ phenomenon, which increases the possibilities of rain above normal.”

Incentives

At the launch of the 2023-24 gross campaign, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) presented the first estimates for soybeans, corn, sunflower and sorghum, under a forecast “favorable”marked by ‘The boy’, after a campaign affected by the ‘La Niña’ phenomenon.

The entity highlighted the production of 134.3 million tons projected for the 2023-24 campaign, a 70.4% increase in the production of the six main field crops compared to the previous season, which would imply a 49% increase in exports, reaching US$ 34,507 million.

The BCBA projects for the next campaign in Argentina a production of 50 million tons of soybeans, 55 million tons of corn, 16.5 million tons of wheat, 4.3 million tons of sunflower, 5 million tons of barley and 3.5 million tons of sorghum.

“In a context where the competitiveness of soybeans improves, in contrast to other crops such as corn, the recovery is evident after the last campaign, in which the 40% of agricultural productionindicates the BCBA in its report.

And adds: “The agroindustrial chain thus begins a new season with financial and economic challenges, in an electoral context that adds uncertainty regarding key variables of the economy”in reference to the presidential elections on October 22.

In this context, the BCBA warned that agricultural production in Argentina is growing below that of the rest of the main producers due to the agricultural policies that generate “disincentives”.

The BCBA understands that the long-term perspectives indicate that it is possible to reach a produced volume of 155 million tons by 2032-33 in a scenario of “policy continuity” or one of 188 million tons of counting “better incentives”.

Source: EFE