Prigozhin’s death removes one problem for Putin, but may create new ones

The death of the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a spectacular plane crash leaves the Russian president Vladimir Putin stronger in the short term, by removing a powerful figure who had challenged his authority and threatened to make him appear weak.

However, it also deprives him of a shrewd agent who had proven himself useful to the Kremlin by sending his men into some of the bloodiest battles of the Ukrainian war and furthering Russian interests across Africa.

Russian air authorities have reported that Prigozhin, his right-hand man Dmitri Utkin and eight other people were on a private plane that crashed without survivors on Wednesday north of Moscow. It is not yet clear what caused the crash.

No evidence has emerged to support the widely held belief that Prigozhin was killed as an act of revenge for leading a riot in late June, an assumption that analysts say may actually serve Putin’s purposes.

“Whatever the reasons for the plane crash, the whole world will see it as an act of retribution and retaliation, and the Kremlin will not particularly interfere with it.”said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the consultancy R.Politik.

“From Putin’s point of view, as well as many among the security forces and the military, Prigozhin’s death should be a lesson for any potential successor.”

Putin, who has gone about his business as usual, attending a World War II commemoration event late on Wednesday and addressing a BRICS summit by video link on Thursday, sent his condolences to Prighozhin’s family.

wrong assumption

The accident occurred two months after Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries mutinied, seized control of a southern city and advanced on Moscow, shooting down several Russian air force planes and killing their pilots.

Putin, who has spoken in the past about his hatred of traitors, described it as a “stabbed in the back”

Since the mutiny, Prigozhin had ended a dispute with the Defense Ministry, but continued his operations and appeared to move freely in and out of Russia, despite an agreement with the Kremlin that he was to go to Belarus.

Abbas Gallyamov, former Kremlin speechwriter, now billed as “foreign agent” for Russia, said Prigozhin had mistakenly assumed he was indispensable to Putin because of the scale and importance of his activities.

These included extensive operations in Africa, where Wagner has expanded his mercenary services in countries such as Mali and the Central African Republic in exchange for gold and diamond mining concessions.

Although presented as a purely private business operation, the Kremlin has used Wagner to influence the continent in competition with Western powers such as France and the United States.

Prigozhin “he assumed that Putin would not want to risk all this,” Gallyamov said. “(He) underestimated how important it was for Putin to send a signal to all would-be rebels: guys, don’t think you can do this and then stay alive.”

Game of Thrones

But Prigozhin’s death is not free for Putin.

It opens up the prospect of a messy struggle for control of Wagner’s massive business empire, analysts say, and a possible split between pragmatists willing to integrate into the Defense Ministry and an aggrieved ultra-nationalist faction already venting its anger on the channels. of social networks.

I think it is possible that, in many ways, it will become a kind of “Game of Thrones” or “The Sopranos” without tail or tail, with factions and Wagner splits that compete with each other ”, says Andrew Borene, CEO of threat intelligence company Flashpoint and a former US intelligence official.

“In the long term, I think it is a strategic loss (for Russia),” he claimed.

Samuel Ramani, analyst at the London think tank RUSI and author of the book “Russia in Africa” he said the loss of Prigozhin’s extensive network would be to Putin’s disadvantage.

“You lose many of the personal contacts that Prigozhin has managed to cultivate on that continent, including the kind of contacts that would be needed to export gold and diamonds out of sanctioned countries like Mali and the Central African Republic.”Ramani said in a telephone interview.

The plane crash occurred on the same day that Russian state media reported the removal of Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of the Russian war forces in Ukraine, as head of the Russian air force.

Widespread but unconfirmed reports have said that Surovikin had been placed under investigation for possible complicity in the Prigozhin mutiny.

The downfall of both men – widely regarded as two of Russia’s most effective operators in a war in which it has had many embarrassing failures – could hamper Moscow’s ability to mount sustainable offensives next year, Ramani said.

If Putin was responsible for Prigozhin’s death, he added, it showed that he was willing to undertake a brutal crackdown on any kind of dissent.

“But it also shows a vulnerability, because now he needs to use force to crack down on these ultranationalists that he could previously co-opt and pacify by including them in his coalition. And that does not speak well of Putin’s sustainability after 2024.”

Source: Reuters