Five keys to understanding the second electoral round in Guatemala

Guatemala will carry out this Sunday the second round of its electoral process to decide who will be its next president, the former first lady Sandra Torres Casanova or the academic Bernardo Arévalo de León.

Here are five keys to fully understand the controversial electoral process in Guatemala and its different protagonists.

The surprise candidate: Bernardo Arévalo de León

The Seed Movement candidate was the surprise in the first electoral round, sneaking into second place when the polls placed him in eighth position. Today, three days before the elections, the academic is the favorite to win the ballot if the polls are met, which show him as the next president of the Central American country with 60 or 65 percent of the total votes.

The current deputy has mainly earned the acceptance of the urban population for his anti-corruption promises and his conciliatory character, in addition to being the son of former president Juan José Arévalo Bermejo, who between 1945 and 1951 promoted great changes for the local population.

Sandra Torres Casanova’s third attempt

The ex-wife of the late former president Álvaro Colom Caballeros (2008-2012) seeks to win the presidency after two failed attempts in 2015 and 2019, when he lost the runoff against Jimmy Morales and Alejandro Giammattei (current president of the country), respectively.

Torres Casanova won the first round of elections on June 20 with almost 900,000 votes, but polls suggest that she will fall short again in her intentions to reach the presidency. Accused of illicit financing in 2019 and accused of having ties to the party Giammattei official.

Torres has offered in the last week various programs for the delivery of cash to various sectors if he comes to power.

The intervention of the Prosecutor’s Office

The Public Ministry (Prosecutor’s Office) of Guatemala, whose leadership is sanctioned by the United States authorities for corruption, has become the protagonist by force of the elections and apparently will continue to be so.

Since Semilla’s runoff vote last June, the Prosecutor’s Office has sought to stop Arévalo de León’s candidacy for an alleged case of false signatures.

However, Semilla’s lawyers have not been allowed access to the file and the accusations are increasingly contradictory, according to various experts.

The situation led to the visit of the Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), Luis Almagro, to verify the electoral outlook. Despite this, the Public Ministry affirmed this week that it does not rule out issuing arrest warrants starting Monday against the top leaders of Semilla, including Arévalo de León.

The controversial Supreme Electoral Tribunal

Initially criticized for almost a dozen irregularities, including the elimination of three candidacies, the Guatemalan Supreme Electoral Tribunal has defended tooth and nail since June the results of the first round under pressure from the Public Ministry and other institutions.

That is why every hour the political weight grows for the five magistrates that make up the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, who are in charge of the most eventful elections in the Central American country since the implantation of democracy in 1996.

The last weeks of the electoral process have been filled with a black campaign against Semilla and warnings from clandestine structures embedded within the State that threaten to prosecute the magistrates after the elections.

The presidential transition for January

Most political analysts agree that if Bernardo Arévalo de León and the Seed Movement win the ballot this Sunday, the presidential transition will be complicated and even runs risks.

This was precisely one of the issues addressed by Almagro during his visit to Guatemala, to the point that he indicated that Giammattei promised him that he would carry out the transition and the change of government without problems, scheduled for next January 14.

However, the Seed Movement and other sectors have raised the alarm that there may be attempts to sabotage the election this Sunday through problems at the polling stations, violent polling officers, illegal challenges, or any other type of attack.

And to this are added the possible actions of the Public Ministry, with arrests, searches and criminal orders at any time to prevent Arévalo de León from taking office if he were to be elected.

Source: EFE