El Niño and its consequences that go beyond the climatic

weather phenomenon The boywhich has just started, is generally related to the rising temperatures world.

The natural rise in temperatures in the Pacific Ocean occurs at intervals ranging from 2 to 7 years, and the episodes generally last from nine to twelve months.

And according to scientists, its consequences could go beyond the exclusively climatic sphere.

Diseases

It has been shown that vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, expand their areas of contamination as temperatures rise.

Scientists warned that El Niño, adding to an already disastrous global warming, could exacerbate the situation.

“The history of El Niño has shown that there is an increase and the appearance of a wide range of vector-borne diseases and other infectious diseases in the tropics, in the areas most affected by El Niño,” said Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts for the charity Wellcome Trust.

The increase stems from two effects of El Niño: unusual rainfall that increases the number of breeding sites for transmitters such as mosquitoes, and higher temperatures that accelerate the transmission of various infectious diseases.

In 1998, an El Niño phenomenon coincided with a major malaria epidemic in the Kenyan highlands.

Mortality

“The arrival of El Niño will greatly increase the probability of breaking temperature records and unleashing more extreme heat in many regions of the world and in the oceans,” stressed at the beginning of July the Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Petteri Taalas.

The heat waves are “silent killers” and “de facto cause the death of more people than any other type of violent weather event”said Gregory Wellenius, director of a center on climate and health at Boston University.

It is estimated that more than 61,000 people died from the heat in Europe last summer, when there was no El Niño phenomenon.

July 2023 is already the hottest month ever recorded on the planet, when the full effect of El Niño on global temperatures only generally manifests itself the year after the start of the phenomenon.

food insecurity

“In a year with an El Niño phenomenon, there are countries that are more likely to have bad harvests. This is the case of South and Southeast Asia”said Walter Baethgen of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

This could especially affect world rice production, which is highly sensitive to weather conditions.

India, the world’s largest rice exporter, already announced last month that it will limit its exports due to damage caused by irregular monsoons.

Economic growth

In early August, the Panama Canal, through which 6% of world maritime trade transits, announced that low rainfall, which forecasters say was exacerbated by El Niño, forced operators to restrict traffic due to fears of drought. , which could lower revenue by US$ 200 million.

A study published in the journal Science in May estimated that past El Niño events have cost the world economy more than $4 trillion in subsequent years.

The impacts of El Niño and climate warming should “cause US$84 trillion in economic losses in the 21st century.” according to this study.

Source: AFP