Agreement with Mercosur, Chinese influence and Ukraine, the pitfalls of the EU-Celac summit

The difficulties in closing the agreement reached with the mercosur After two decades of negotiations, the growing Chinese influence in the region and the critical opinion of Brazil, Mexico and Argentina towards the allies in the war in Ukraine are important divergences that are expected to emerge at the next meeting EU–celac.

The III Summit of Heads of State and Government of the European Union (EU) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac), which will take place in Brussels next Monday and Tuesday, will be the first of the Spanish presidency of the Council of the EU and is celebrated eight years after the last bi-regional meeting.

“The interesting thing about the summit is that it will establish strategic priorities and put together a new agenda in the bi-regional discussion”Juan Battaleme, academic director of the Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI), told EFE.

“The diversification of trade flows, access to critical minerals, the energy transition, the mitigation of climate problems and the fight against drug trafficking are the issues that will set the agenda,” adds.

But a good part of the attention is also placed on those who will attend.

“As Andrés Manuel López Obrador (president of Mexico) is not going, this will rather be a show by (Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio) Lula da Silva. Alberto Fernández (from Argentina) is on the way out, Gustavo Petro is very complicated in Colombia, the same as Gabriel Boric (Chile). Dina Boluarte (Peru) is a president without legitimacy, and I don’t know if Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela) will go. There are no voices that can speak for Latin America”, Patricio Navia, professor of Liberal Studies at New York University, told EFE.

EU-MERCOSUR AGREEMENT, AN UNKNOWN

One of the great unknowns of the appointment is whether it will serve to advance the Agreement between the European Union and the mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay), whose negotiations were closed in 2019, but whose subscription remains stagnant.

“Everyone believes that the agreement would be very useful, but nobody has much faith in it happening. These negotiations are the same as the declarations in favor of world peace in beauty pageants.”, says Navia.

“The greatest difficulty in closing the agreement – Battaleme points out – is that even when it reports benefits, some sectors in Latin American societies make it very difficult for it to come to fruition”.

“A strategic agreement between the European Union and Latin America is essential for both parties”, Fernando Reyes Matta, director of the Center for China Studies at the Andrés Bello University, stresses to EFE.

“But the 20 years of negotiations show that the agreements reached do not have the necessary consensus (…) and new tensions are added along the way,” such as da Silva’s rejection of eventual European Union sanctions against Brazil for deforestation, adds the Chilean diplomat and academic.

TWO VIEWS ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE

“The war in Ukraine has increased the differences that already existed between the EU and the CELAC countries, which decided to pay less attention to the authoritarian regressions in Venezuela and Nicaragua. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown that these two regional organizations have very different ways of understanding the same reality.” says Patricio Navia.

“The European Union has been actively involved on the side of Ukraine. Latin America talks about the war, but almost nothing gets involved. The EU turns its sayings into concrete actions; the countries of Latin America, no”considers the also professor at the Diego Portales University of Chile.

“Latin America is a region committed to the peaceful solution of disputes”, remember in both Reyes Matta. “Today that conviction appears strongly in the face of a European Union that seeks from Latin Americans a military commitment with Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion”underline.

For the Argentine academic Juan Battaleme, in Latin America “There is a critical look at the effects that the war has had on the economies and the pressure that it has brought” for the region.

“Excluding Brazil, which incredibly has a stronger relationship with Moscow, in general, Latin American societies are critical of Russia, but the political establishment is less so (…), in America we do not feel emotionally involved in the war,” says Battaleme.

THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE INFLUENTIAL CHINESE

“For both Europe and Latin America, the construction of a dialogue with China based on autonomy and non-alignment is essential”but “The main challenge is to understand that China is not the daughter of the French Revolution”, emphasizes Reyes Matta.

To Europe, Battaleme points out, “He is concerned about the relative loss of economic and political influence in the region.” For a long time it has been a decisive economic factor in Latin America “and now it is trapped in this kind of political and technological cold war between China and the United States.”

“Latin America could mean a key component in the aspirations of European strategic autonomy”, concludes.

Source: EFE