The worst thing about omicron, so far, is the uncertainty

Por Andreas Kluth

Here we go again … The coronavirus mutated, as we always knew it would, and the new variant, called the omicron, is spreading rapidly. Should we be scared or optimistic? Should we modify our behavior and plans or move on? To answer these questions, we need three pieces of information that we don’t have yet, so we just have to wait. And for many of us, the wait itself is the problem.

That’s because waiting – ironically, good news or bad – causes anxiety. And it is an anguish that, through a series of stress hormones that it sends through our bodies, torments us almost like a virus does.

These are the three pieces of information we are waiting for. First, how much more contagious than the delta variant and its predecessors is omicron? Second, does the omicron variant cause more severe disease and more death? And third, to what extent does the omicron variant evade the immune response provided by vaccines or a previous infection?

The makers of the two major mRNA vaccines, BioNTech SE and Moderna Inc., are now working to answer the third question and should have answers in about two weeks. Scientists around the world are working on the other two, but their verdicts will take a little longer. Hence our dilemma: what should we do now and in the coming weeks?

As I watch the reactions in my own social circles, the psychological responses are more or less divided as they did in early 2020, when talk of a pandemic began. Some people choose denial. With their body language, gestures, jokes, and social and travel plans, they point out that since we don’t know anything yet, there is no point in worrying or adjusting. Let’s live a little while we can.

Others go around in vicious mental circles of anxiety. They plan and re-plan scenarios – cancel vacation plans? Prepare for school closings and lockdowns? – and obsessively hit the refresh button on the news sites they’ve chosen. Those media channels provide this additional demand by offering endless talks from experts who – remember – still don’t have more information than the rest of us.

Personality traits – a tendency toward neuroticism, for example – will influence where people fall on this spectrum. But evolution has made us prone to hating uncertainty, first by making us unusually smart so that our brains can prepare for something potentially bad lurking around the corner and thus help us survive. The saber-toothed tiger may or may not be there, but we will fare better on average if we take the worst for granted.

Unfortunately, human brains are easily raced. We notice a lump somewhere in our tissues and we go to the doctor to check it out. He sends it to the lab. Now we have to wait, and during that time we imagine what the result might show. And how creative our minds get in those moments!

Research has shown that, in fact, people tend to be calmer when they anticipate certain pain rather than a 50% chance of experiencing it. Other studies revealed that the uncertainty surrounding our job is more detrimental to our health than actually losing it.

If you think homo sapiens is rational, this doesn’t make sense. You cannot – at least not logically – be more afraid of a situation that could end badly or well than one that will definitely end badly. But if you accept that we are biological beings, it makes perfect sense. In our distant past, those of us who overestimated danger without having the knowledge had an evolutionary advantage over those who took life in stride.

The problem is excess. As our imaginations run wild, many of us develop an intolerance for uncertainty, which, in turn, can lead to generalized anxiety disorder. That is always the case, but even more so in a pandemic. Anxiety has increased, especially among teens and young adults. Globally, rates appear to have doubled, to more than one in five.

Anxiety, of course, is a disease in its own right: it makes us seek escape in substances that are addictive and harmful to health, often even fatal; slowly ruin our bodies and our relationships; and robs us of joy and optimism.

So now we face a new wave of uncertainty about what the omicron variant holds for us. What will it mean for our plans, education, career, relationships, health and life? And after omicron, there will be other Greek letters, up to omega. We will practice worrying so much that we will be professionals.

So why not use that practice? Perhaps the best thing we can do against this particular anxiety – collectively and individually – is not to suppress it, but to identify it and then laugh at it together. That could help steer us away from the nonstop stuntmen on TV and just wait for what the facts say, in due course, of course.