Although there are already vaccines to stop its expansion, the appearance of mutations once again complicates countries with new waves of infections and deaths.
A global economic crisis, the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives and physical and psychological consequences for those who have suffered or have been affected by the restrictions that it has forced to impose are among the main consequences that COVID-19 has caused in the world since it appeared more than two years ago, in which it has affected the entire population without economic, religious or social stratum bias.
The first epicenter of the virus, scientifically named SARS-CoV-2, was in Wuhan (China), where the virus was detected. first case on November 17, 2019. However, the origin of this animal-type virus is still unknown, nor what species was the intermediary for transmission to man, but everything indicates that it happened to a seller of the Huanan animal market, located in the city, and possibly from the pangolin, a highly trafficked mammal in Asia.
An investigation of the Chinese environment South China Morning Post revealed in 2020 that, since the first case was detected, the expansion was rapid. By December 15, the total of infected people was 27; By the end of 2019, there were 266; and on January 1, 2020, there were already 381. The first death from the virus dates back to January 11, 2020: it was a 61-year-old man.
Despite that, it was not until March 11, 2020 that the World Health Organization (WHO) cataloged the problem as a pandemic. The world received two months before the genetic sequence of the virus so that tests could be carried out to detect it, just when it had already transcended the borders of the Asian power.
Two years later, the world already has vaccines to stop its expansion and more and more drugs would be close to achieving approval.
However, the appearance of variants of the disease once again complicates countries, which face new waves of infections, hospitalizations and deaths. At least a dozen mutations have been considered relevant by the WHO. The last ones that have aroused fear in people have been delta, to which the new wave of infections in Europe is attributed; and omicron, which has unleashed restrictions and border closures for southern Africa.
The infectious disease specialist Washington Alemán, director of the Infectious Disease Prevention Unit (UPEI) of the Municipality of Guayaquil, says that the pandemic is following the same pattern as any epidemic caused by respiratory viruses.
“Its evolution probably has a lot to do with a cyclical aspect that pandemics have, and that their behavior unfortunately cannot be controlled is due to multiple factors,” he says.
For the expert, one of these main factors is globalization, which means that a person can go around the world in less than a day, which favors that unvaccinated, infected populations from regions with high transmissibility can easily reach another region where the pandemic is controlled or comes with a decrease in cases.
Added to this is the problem of vaccination, marked by inequity.
“There are countries where there are vaccines saved for twice their population … as in the case of the US and Canada, which have had to give away vaccines; and these countries have a large percentage of the population that does not want to be vaccinated. And there are countries where they still do not even reach 2% of vaccination, such as Haiti and other poor countries, and where they want to be vaccinated and there are no vaccines, ”says the expert.
The evolution of the pandemic causes different variants or mutations of the virus to appear, because there are people vaccinated and the virus tries to escape and new mutations are created that are then transferred to the world, says Alemán, who adds that they are responsible of the new waves that appear in countries where it has been controlled.
Greater equity in vaccination is paramount, ensures.
Alfredo Bruno, an expert microbiologist in respiratory viruses, agrees that the appearance of mutations is something typical and expected of respiratory-type pandemics, and that the most consistent appear as the result of an accumulation of various mutations.
However, it also points out that the lack of biosanitary measures, such as the use of a mask, or distancing facilitate the mutation of the disease.
“Of all these mutations, which can be many, only a few will be impactful, and this must be monitored with genomic studies, sequencing, in order to determine if these mutations are going to impact on the severity, transmissibility or if they can evade the immune system and affect the available treatment or diagnosis ”, he points out.
In the case of omicron, Bruno states that it is not the right thing to stigmatize the countries where the variants originate, as is the case at the moment in the southern African nations.
“In South Africa what has happened is that they have a very sensitive and excellent genomic surveillance system. We cannot demonize a country for doing what it should do; and it has to notify it, it is written in the international sanitary regulation ”, he points out.
Meanwhile, both experts agree that, as long as the world is not completely vaccinating, the risk of having a virus with mutations remains and there will be susceptible people.
Alemán assures that the reinforcements of the vaccine will be necessary to fight against the variants and so that vulnerable groups do not become susceptible.
“Previous pandemics have lasted two, three, four years, and each new outbreak will not be the same as the previous ones … At some point the virus will no longer have someone to infect, because it has already infected everyone; until there are susceptible people, the virus will continue to infect, but there will come a time when everyone is already infected. But we cannot sit back until we wait for that to happen, ”he says. (I)
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