FAO: agricultural production in Latin America will grow 12% in the next decade among challenges

The agricultural production and fisheries in Latin America and the Caribbean will increase by 12% in the next decade but at a rate “Slower” than the past and among challenges such as the volatility of world trade, as predicted today in a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

“Agricultural and fisheries production in the region is projected to expand by 12% by 2032, markedly slower than in the past”, reads the document with the world perspectives of the FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (ECDE).

The agencies estimate that almost 70% of the growth will come from crop production, which will increase by 17%, while livestock and fishing will experience a boom “more moderate” of 11% and 10% in the next ten years, respectively.

In this sense, they point out, “exports are key to sustained agricultural growth” and this region with 2,000 million cultivated hectares and “abundant resources” agriculture will face numerous challenges, just like the rest of the world.

The FAO report first highlights that by 2032 Latin America is expected to have a global export share of more than 30% of corn, soybeans, sugar, beef, poultry and flour.

“The importance of exports for the region’s agriculture is underscored by its central position in world trade and its central role in driving production growth.”, he alleges.

But, at the same time, it warns that growth “sustained” Latin American and Caribbean crops will depend on the world maintaining “its orientation towards an open global market”.

In other words, the prosperity of agriculture in the region will also depend on its foreign buyers, on exports, and for this reason “in the next decade the evolution of trade relations in various parts of the world“will count for a lot for producers, creating”new opportunities and risks”.

“While export-led growth has done well” to Latin America and the Caribbean -although countries like Panama and El Salvador are essentially importers-, “the global market is increasingly volatile and international trade more fragile” between geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, for example.

Another factor that could vary production is the climate crisis. The region, especially Brazil, already represents more than half of the world’s soybean crop and its share is expected to reach 54% in 2032, but the 2021 drought made it more expensive.

“Given the continued climate change, these phenomena could be more frequent. In fact, many countries in the region are already challenged by prolonged drought conditions that influence their production potential, as well as by the presence of natural disasters such as fires.”, warn the agencies.

In climatic conditionsnormal”, they allege, Latin America “It has the potential to fill the gaps” production generated by the war in Ukraine and the uncertainty in the Black Sea area after the invasion of the Russian Federation.

The document explains that the region faces the challenge of alleviating misery, especially when in 2021 the rate of extreme poverty increased to 13.8% in Latin America, at levels not seen for more than a quarter of a century, a data confirmed by ECLAC. .

In this context, food has seen that “a decade of gains in total calorie availability has largely stalled since 2015.”

This is due to the decrease in people’s income levels, due to “macroeconomic instability”, as well as the pandemic and the increase in prices.

“By 2023, per capita intake is expected to reach 3,111 kilocalories per person per year, but that is slow 3% growth for a decade. This would mean a boom of only 89 kilocalories per day per person”, warns the report.

In this area, food, the organizations warn that the consumption of sugar in the region continues to be “high”, almost 65% above the global average.

Source: EFE