Global trade increased in the first quarter but will slow down in the second

Merchandise trade increased by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the last quarter of 2022 and services grew by 2.8%, but everything indicates that this trend will slow down in the April-June period, indicated today a report from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD),

In its updated study of trade prospects, the United Nations body analyzed that merchandise trade added some US$ 100 billion between January and March and services trade some 50 billion.

For the second quarter, however, it anticipates a slowdown in world trade based on the recent downgrade of economic forecasts “and to factors such as persistent inflation, financial vulnerabilities, the war in Ukraine and geopolitical tensions”.

In merchandise trade, the report shows an 11% increase in Chinese exports in the first quarter from the previous three months. Foreign sales from India (7%), the European Union (3%) and the United States (2%) also grew.

However, exports from Brazil (-2%), Japan (-2%) and especially Russia (-19%), affected by sanctions due to the invasion of Ukraine, decreased.

In the report, UNCTAD underscores the continuing decline in US-China trade dependency, as the US has lost relative importance as an export market over the past year and a half.

By sectors, the UNCTAD report highlights a decrease of 11% in trade in the energy sector in January-March compared to the last quarter of 2022, while telecommunications equipment fell 13% and transport equipment 20%.

There was a notable increase in trade in the pharmaceutical industry (13% variation between quarters), while textiles and minerals rose 6%.

Source: EFE