Analysis: Maduro strengthens position in Latin America after era of diplomatic isolation

The President of Venezuela, Nicolas Madurocame out reinforced in the face of Washington’s policy of diplomatic isolation and sanctions by receiving support from Lula in Brazil, but the deadlock in negotiations with the opposition towards the 2024 elections maintains uncertainty, according to analysts.

Ripe has been favored by the turn to the left of countries such as Argentina, Colombia and ultimately Brazil with the return to the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, while his rivals lost strength as their offensive to remove him from power foundered.

“I think the political isolation is behind us. Even governments that have wide differences with the Maduro government have chosen to maintain or resume diplomatic relations.”, he declared to AFP Mariano de Albasenior adviser to International Crisis Groupafter the visit of the Venezuelan president to Brasilia for a meeting of South American presidents.

There are, however, obstacles: the paralysis since November of the negotiating table between Ripe and the opposition to agree on the conditions of the next presidential elections and the denunciations of human rights violations in Venezuela generate confrontation.

The meeting in Brasilia reflected these differences. Lula said that the accusations of authoritarianism against Maduro were a “constructed narrative”, provoking harsh reactions from his peers UruguayLuis Lacalle Pou, and ChiliGabriel Boric.

“The worst thing we can do is cover the sun with a fingersaid Lacalle Pou. “The human rights situation in Venezuela is not a narrative construction, it is a reality”, expressed Boric.

The political scientist Pablo Andres Quintero think that “Lula’s image strengthens Maduro’s political narrative”, which can help you in a “reintegration agenda” international for “press” for the lifting of sanctions.

According to a note from the political risk firm Eurasian Groupthe progressive change in the “regional position” about Venezuela does “uncomfortable isolationist policies” that Washington maintains despite rapprochement with Caracas due to the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the oil market.

“Correct address”

“Bring Maduro out of isolation” No “is so easy”, says a diplomatic source from Brazil. “Economic integration is difficult with sanctions”, an issue that depends on the United States, he adds.

Upon his return to Caracas, Maduro celebrated the summit as “a sure step in the right direction” for a reunion between the South American governments.

This meeting came just over a month after the president of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, organized a meeting of foreign ministers and diplomatic representatives in Bogotá to try to “unlock” the negotiations between Maduro and the opposition.

Mariano de Alba stresses that negotiation is key: Lula and Petro, he says, “they buy Maduro’s arguments, but at the same time they recognize that the current situation is not sustainable”, since the lack of agreements would lead to Venezuela “to a deeper economic crisis” with migratory impact.

More than 7 million Venezuelans have migrated due to the crisis, the vast majority to other Latin American countries.

Joe Biden’s administration has declared itself willing to make financial arrangements more flexible if there are agreements, but Maduro, publicly, does not give in.

“We don’t care if they say something or not”, expressed the socialist ruler in March.

Maduro completed his first official trip to Brazil since November, when he went to Egypt for the United Nations Conference on Climate Change, where he met the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, who has advocated “to diversify” Crude supply sources, opening to Venezuela and Iran.

“Move the board”

Weakened and fractured, the opposition tries to rebuild itself after the symbolic “interim government” of the opposition leader Juan Guaidó -recognized by the United States and fifty countries in 2019- was eliminated by his own allies in January.

“There are no guarantees that we will have a competitive election next year; that is, we have to move the board and the United States government has to help”, the presidential candidate said in a forum Henrique Caprileswho faced the deceased at the polls Hugo Chavezin 2012, and Maduro, in 2013.

Capriles believes that the isolation of Venezuela“far from recovering democracy”, led to the “stabilizationfrom Maduro.

Other opposition leaders like Guaidó, who fled to the United States in April, consider abandoning that line a mistake. “It is not narrative, they are crimes without justice”, he published on Twitter, accusing Lula of “trying to launder a dictatorship”.

Source: AFP