El Niño may help a less active storm season in the Atlantic

The official hurricane season begins this Thursday in the Atlantic basin with forecasts indicating that the number of cyclones may be within the average and the unknown of how the presence of the climatic phenomenon will affect The boy.

After five years absent, El Niño is going to develop in the Pacific from now on and continue “quite pronounced” the rest of the year, he tells EFE anthony reynesa meteorologist for the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which reports to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Usually that means “atmospheric conditions that become less favorable for the development of cyclones (in the Atlantic), not only for their formation, but also for them to maintain a higher intensity during the season”, he adds.

That is a reason for hope for the inhabitants of the countries bordering the Caribbean, the Bahamas, Bermuda and the southern and southeastern states of the United States who spend six months pending weather bulletins and have suffered in the last five years very bad seasons. active.

That of 2020 set an absolute record, with 30 named storms, of which 14 became hurricanes and of these, 7 were major hurricanes, that is, with maximum winds of 111 miles per hour, which is equivalent to 178 km/ h.

The Child on the threshold

The hurricane season in the Atlantic begins this June 1 and runs until November 30 and NOAA has predicted that this year there will be at least 12 named storms, of which between 5 and 9 will become hurricanes and of these one could be a major hurricane

There is a 40% chance that it will be a season “almost normal”, a 30% of a season above normal and a 30% of a season below normal, according to NOAA.

Reynes believes that the El Niño phenomenon It can contribute to the near-normality coming to fruition or even to it being a season below normal, but he warns that this opinion is based on statistics and projections and not on “exact data”.

El Niño tends to produce an increase in Pacific water temperatures in the tropical area, near the Equator, and “this increase, although in terms of numbers is not very large, it has a significant impact on the atmosphere”.

“This changes the pattern of winds and generally means that here in the Atlantic area we can have winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that become less favorable for the development of cyclones.“, says.

The meteorologist indicated that, in any case, the important thing for the start of the season is that people are prepared for what may come.

Do not fear only the wind

In this sense, reynes called on the population when a storm or hurricane is announced not only to pay attention to the forecasts of the strength that its winds will reach, but also to those that refer to rain and storm surge, which can be the same or even more dangerous.

“We have to start changing the mentality of the general public so that they stop being focused on the scale of winds,” he stresses, indicating that Hurricane Ian, which devastated a large area of ​​Florida in 2022 with its catastrophic storm surge, left a important lesson.

“If you are in an evacuation area, if you are in danger of a storm surge, leave your home and follow all the instructions of the authorities so that you and your family can be saved.“, says reynes.

Ian made landfall on September 28 in southwestern Florida with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h) and a storm surge of 17 to 20 feet (5.1 to 6 meters).

Of the 156 people who died from the passage of this hurricane, which before the United States touched Cuba, 55 drowned due to the rise in sea level, which entered the land and devastated everything.

Source: EFE